**Forecast models and official guidance position 10–11°C as the most probable daily maximum for Wellington on August 6, 2026.** MetService currently projects a high of 10°C under mainly sunny conditions with breezy southerly to southwesterly winds, while longer-range guidance and climatological normals for early August cluster near 11–12°C. Cooler-than-average conditions this week, driven by recent southerly flow and clearing skies after showers, have suppressed daytime warming and support the market’s heavy weighting toward these two outcomes. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region through August, consistent with the narrow 10–12°C cluster holding over 95% of implied probability. Minor upward revisions in some ensemble members or a slight easing of winds could nudge the maximum to 11°C, explaining its narrow lead, while 12°C remains a lower-probability outlier requiring stronger northerly influence. No major model shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours, keeping trader focus tightly on the next MetService update and any late adjustments to wind or cloud cover.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Wellington on August 6?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 6?
11°C 55%
10°C 34%
12°C 9%
9°C 4%
ใหม่
$27,586 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$27,586 ปริมาณ
Aug 6, 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
4%
10°C
34%
11°C
55%
12°C
9%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
11°C 55%
10°C 34%
12°C 9%
9°C 4%
ใหม่
$27,586 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$27,586 ปริมาณ
Aug 6, 2026
5°C or below
$373 ปริมาณ
<1%
6°C
$353 ปริมาณ
<1%
7°C
$581 ปริมาณ
<1%
8°C
$2,141 ปริมาณ
<1%
9°C
$3,701 ปริมาณ
4%
10°C
$4,394 ปริมาณ
34%
11°C
$5,662 ปริมาณ
55%
12°C
$4,967 ปริมาณ
9%
13°C
$3,496 ปริมาณ
1%
14°C
$577 ปริมาณ
<1%
15°C or higher
$1,347 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance position 10–11°C as the most probable daily maximum for Wellington on August 6, 2026.** MetService currently projects a high of 10°C under mainly sunny conditions with breezy southerly to southwesterly winds, while longer-range guidance and climatological normals for early August cluster near 11–12°C. Cooler-than-average conditions this week, driven by recent southerly flow and clearing skies after showers, have suppressed daytime warming and support the market’s heavy weighting toward these two outcomes.
NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region through August, consistent with the narrow 10–12°C cluster holding over 95% of implied probability. Minor upward revisions in some ensemble members or a slight easing of winds could nudge the maximum to 11°C, explaining its narrow lead, while 12°C remains a lower-probability outlier requiring stronger northerly influence. No major model shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours, keeping trader focus tightly on the next MetService update and any late adjustments to wind or cloud cover.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$27,586วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 6, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance position 10–11°C as the most probable daily maximum for Wellington on August 6, 2026.** MetService currently projects a high of 10°C under mainly sunny conditions with breezy southerly to southwesterly winds, while longer-range guidance and climatological normals for early August cluster near 11–12°C. Cooler-than-average conditions this week, driven by recent southerly flow and clearing skies after showers, have suppressed daytime warming and support the market’s heavy weighting toward these two outcomes.
NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region through August, consistent with the narrow 10–12°C cluster holding over 95% of implied probability. Minor upward revisions in some ensemble members or a slight easing of winds could nudge the maximum to 11°C, explaining its narrow lead, while 12°C remains a lower-probability outlier requiring stronger northerly influence. No major model shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours, keeping trader focus tightly on the next MetService update and any late adjustments to wind or cloud cover.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$27,586วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 6, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and official guidance position 10–11°C as the most probable daily maximum for Wellington on August 6, 2026.** MetService currently projects a high of 10°C under mainly sunny conditions with breezy southerly to southwesterly winds, while longer-range guidance and climatological normals for early August cluster near 11–12°C. Cooler-than-average conditions this week, driven by recent southerly flow and clearing skies after showers, have suppressed daytime warming and support the market’s heavy weighting toward these two outcomes. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region through August, consistent with the narrow 10–12°C cluster holding over 95% of implied probability. Minor upward revisions in some ensemble members or a slight easing of winds could nudge the maximum to 11°C, explaining its narrow lead, while 12°C remains a lower-probability outlier requiring stronger northerly influence. No major model shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours, keeping trader focus tightly on the next MetService update and any late adjustments to wind or cloud cover.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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