Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-certain implied probability (100%) to 290–319 US tornadoes in April 2026, backed by preliminary Storm Prediction Center (SPC) tallies from National Weather Service damage surveys confirming at least 292 events—well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 182. Major drivers include the April 17–18 outbreak (86 tornadoes across the Upper Midwest), late-month sequences in the Plains, and favorable atmospheric patterns like high CAPE and wind shear fostering supercell development. Final National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Storm Data publication, slated for early May, may incorporate minor adjustments from ongoing EF-scale verifications of weaker EF0 tornadoes, but reaching 350+ would require unprecedented late additions, while dropping below 290 seems improbable absent widespread disqualifications.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many Tornadoes in the US in April?
How many Tornadoes in the US in April?
290–319 100.0%
<140 <1%
140–169 <1%
170–199 <1%
$126,968 ปริมาณ
$126,968 ปริมาณ
May 10, 2026
<140
No
140–169
No
170–199
No
200–229
No
230–259
No
260–289
No
290–319
Yes
320–350
No
350+
No
290–319 100.0%
<140 <1%
140–169 <1%
170–199 <1%
$126,968 ปริมาณ
$126,968 ปริมาณ
May 10, 2026
<140
$23,882 ปริมาณ
No
140–169
$21,650 ปริมาณ
No
170–199
$9,289 ปริมาณ
No
200–229
$4,650 ปริมาณ
No
230–259
$6,429 ปริมาณ
No
260–289
$1,192 ปริมาณ
No
290–319
$2,797 ปริมาณ
Yes
320–350
$22,983 ปริมาณ
No
350+
$34,097 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-certain implied probability (100%) to 290–319 US tornadoes in April 2026, backed by preliminary Storm Prediction Center (SPC) tallies from National Weather Service damage surveys confirming at least 292 events—well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 182. Major drivers include the April 17–18 outbreak (86 tornadoes across the Upper Midwest), late-month sequences in the Plains, and favorable atmospheric patterns like high CAPE and wind shear fostering supercell development. Final National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Storm Data publication, slated for early May, may incorporate minor adjustments from ongoing EF-scale verifications of weaker EF0 tornadoes, but reaching 350+ would require unprecedented late additions, while dropping below 290 seems improbable absent widespread disqualifications.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$126,968วันสิ้นสุด
May 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-certain implied probability (100%) to 290–319 US tornadoes in April 2026, backed by preliminary Storm Prediction Center (SPC) tallies from National Weather Service damage surveys confirming at least 292 events—well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 182. Major drivers include the April 17–18 outbreak (86 tornadoes across the Upper Midwest), late-month sequences in the Plains, and favorable atmospheric patterns like high CAPE and wind shear fostering supercell development. Final National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Storm Data publication, slated for early May, may incorporate minor adjustments from ongoing EF-scale verifications of weaker EF0 tornadoes, but reaching 350+ would require unprecedented late additions, while dropping below 290 seems improbable absent widespread disqualifications.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$126,968วันสิ้นสุด
May 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-certain implied probability (100%) to 290–319 US tornadoes in April 2026, backed by preliminary Storm Prediction Center (SPC) tallies from National Weather Service damage surveys confirming at least 292 events—well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 182. Major drivers include the April 17–18 outbreak (86 tornadoes across the Upper Midwest), late-month sequences in the Plains, and favorable atmospheric patterns like high CAPE and wind shear fostering supercell development. Final National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Storm Data publication, slated for early May, may incorporate minor adjustments from ongoing EF-scale verifications of weaker EF0 tornadoes, but reaching 350+ would require unprecedented late additions, while dropping below 290 seems improbable absent widespread disqualifications.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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