**Delia Ramirez (D), the incumbent in Illinois' 3rd Congressional District, faces Republican Angel Oakley in the November 3, 2026 general election.** The district carries a D+17 Partisan Voter Index and showed strong Democratic performance in recent cycles, including simulated 2024 presidential results favoring the Democratic candidate by roughly 31 points. Primaries concluded in March with both nominees advancing unopposed or with minimal opposition. Trader consensus on the margin-of-victory market reflects this baseline lean while assigning comparable probabilities across Democratic win ranges from 0-20% through 30-35%, alongside a notable share for a Republican victory. The tight pricing on candidate-specific and margin contracts stems from the absence of recent public polling, limited campaign spending visibility, and uncertainty over turnout dynamics in a district that includes Chicago neighborhoods and western suburbs. Safe Democratic ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball reinforce the overall favorite status without pinpointing the precise margin. Key variables that could shift probabilities include national midterm conditions, candidate-specific fundraising or endorsements, and any late-cycle developments affecting voter mobilization in this heavily Democratic seat. Resolution will follow official certification of the November results.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วDemocrat 50-55% 39%
Democrat 45-50% 39%
Democrat 0-20% 39%
Democrat 40-45% 36%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 60%+
31%
Democrat 55-60%
34%
Democrat 50-55%
39%
Democrat 45-50%
39%
Democrat 40-45%
36%
Democrat 35-40%
29%
Democrat 30-35%
36%
Democrat 20-30%
35%
Democrat 0-20%
39%
Republican Wins
24%
Democrat 50-55% 39%
Democrat 45-50% 39%
Democrat 0-20% 39%
Democrat 40-45% 36%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 60%+
$0 ปริมาณ
31%
Democrat 55-60%
$0 ปริมาณ
34%
Democrat 50-55%
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
Democrat 45-50%
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
Democrat 40-45%
$0 ปริมาณ
36%
Democrat 35-40%
$0 ปริมาณ
29%
Democrat 30-35%
$0 ปริมาณ
36%
Democrat 20-30%
$0 ปริมาณ
35%
Democrat 0-20%
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
Republican Wins
$45 ปริมาณ
24%
The 2026 IL-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Delia Ramirez (D), the incumbent in Illinois' 3rd Congressional District, faces Republican Angel Oakley in the November 3, 2026 general election.** The district carries a D+17 Partisan Voter Index and showed strong Democratic performance in recent cycles, including simulated 2024 presidential results favoring the Democratic candidate by roughly 31 points. Primaries concluded in March with both nominees advancing unopposed or with minimal opposition.
Trader consensus on the margin-of-victory market reflects this baseline lean while assigning comparable probabilities across Democratic win ranges from 0-20% through 30-35%, alongside a notable share for a Republican victory. The tight pricing on candidate-specific and margin contracts stems from the absence of recent public polling, limited campaign spending visibility, and uncertainty over turnout dynamics in a district that includes Chicago neighborhoods and western suburbs. Safe Democratic ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball reinforce the overall favorite status without pinpointing the precise margin.
Key variables that could shift probabilities include national midterm conditions, candidate-specific fundraising or endorsements, and any late-cycle developments affecting voter mobilization in this heavily Democratic seat. Resolution will follow official certification of the November results.
The 2026 IL-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 10, 2026, 10:52 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$45วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 10, 2026, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 IL-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Delia Ramirez (D), the incumbent in Illinois' 3rd Congressional District, faces Republican Angel Oakley in the November 3, 2026 general election.** The district carries a D+17 Partisan Voter Index and showed strong Democratic performance in recent cycles, including simulated 2024 presidential results favoring the Democratic candidate by roughly 31 points. Primaries concluded in March with both nominees advancing unopposed or with minimal opposition.
Trader consensus on the margin-of-victory market reflects this baseline lean while assigning comparable probabilities across Democratic win ranges from 0-20% through 30-35%, alongside a notable share for a Republican victory. The tight pricing on candidate-specific and margin contracts stems from the absence of recent public polling, limited campaign spending visibility, and uncertainty over turnout dynamics in a district that includes Chicago neighborhoods and western suburbs. Safe Democratic ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball reinforce the overall favorite status without pinpointing the precise margin.
Key variables that could shift probabilities include national midterm conditions, candidate-specific fundraising or endorsements, and any late-cycle developments affecting voter mobilization in this heavily Democratic seat. Resolution will follow official certification of the November results.
The 2026 IL-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$45วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 10, 2026, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Delia Ramirez (D), the incumbent in Illinois' 3rd Congressional District, faces Republican Angel Oakley in the November 3, 2026 general election.** The district carries a D+17 Partisan Voter Index and showed strong Democratic performance in recent cycles, including simulated 2024 presidential results favoring the Democratic candidate by roughly 31 points. Primaries concluded in March with both nominees advancing unopposed or with minimal opposition. Trader consensus on the margin-of-victory market reflects this baseline lean while assigning comparable probabilities across Democratic win ranges from 0-20% through 30-35%, alongside a notable share for a Republican victory. The tight pricing on candidate-specific and margin contracts stems from the absence of recent public polling, limited campaign spending visibility, and uncertainty over turnout dynamics in a district that includes Chicago neighborhoods and western suburbs. Safe Democratic ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball reinforce the overall favorite status without pinpointing the precise margin. Key variables that could shift probabilities include national midterm conditions, candidate-specific fundraising or endorsements, and any late-cycle developments affecting voter mobilization in this heavily Democratic seat. Resolution will follow official certification of the November results.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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