Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 80% implied probability for Arizona's 5th Congressional District House seat due to its R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent 20-point GOP margins in recent cycles, including Andy Biggs' 60%-39% win in 2024. Biggs vacated the incumbency for a gubernatorial bid, creating an open race, but President Trump's November 2025 endorsement of former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, alongside strong GOP primary fundraising—Daniel Keenan holds $1.2 million cash-on-hand per March FEC reports—bolsters the field. Democrats face a fragmented primary with five lesser-known candidates post-March 23 filing deadline, limiting competitiveness. The July 21 primaries loom as the next catalyst, though forecasters rate the district Solid Republican.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAZ-05 House Election Winner
AZ-05 House Election Winner
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
80%
Democratic Party
14%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$4,264 ปริมาณ
80%
Democratic Party
$2,531 ปริมาณ
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 80% implied probability for Arizona's 5th Congressional District House seat due to its R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent 20-point GOP margins in recent cycles, including Andy Biggs' 60%-39% win in 2024. Biggs vacated the incumbency for a gubernatorial bid, creating an open race, but President Trump's November 2025 endorsement of former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, alongside strong GOP primary fundraising—Daniel Keenan holds $1.2 million cash-on-hand per March FEC reports—bolsters the field. Democrats face a fragmented primary with five lesser-known candidates post-March 23 filing deadline, limiting competitiveness. The July 21 primaries loom as the next catalyst, though forecasters rate the district Solid Republican.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,794วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 80% implied probability for Arizona's 5th Congressional District House seat due to its R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent 20-point GOP margins in recent cycles, including Andy Biggs' 60%-39% win in 2024. Biggs vacated the incumbency for a gubernatorial bid, creating an open race, but President Trump's November 2025 endorsement of former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, alongside strong GOP primary fundraising—Daniel Keenan holds $1.2 million cash-on-hand per March FEC reports—bolsters the field. Democrats face a fragmented primary with five lesser-known candidates post-March 23 filing deadline, limiting competitiveness. The July 21 primaries loom as the next catalyst, though forecasters rate the district Solid Republican.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,794วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 80% implied probability for Arizona's 5th Congressional District House seat due to its R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent 20-point GOP margins in recent cycles, including Andy Biggs' 60%-39% win in 2024. Biggs vacated the incumbency for a gubernatorial bid, creating an open race, but President Trump's November 2025 endorsement of former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, alongside strong GOP primary fundraising—Daniel Keenan holds $1.2 million cash-on-hand per March FEC reports—bolsters the field. Democrats face a fragmented primary with five lesser-known candidates post-March 23 filing deadline, limiting competitiveness. The July 21 primaries loom as the next catalyst, though forecasters rate the district Solid Republican.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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