Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% implied probability for the TX-30 House seat due to the district's strong Democratic lean—rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+25 partisan index—and Rev. Frederick Haynes III's dominant March 3 primary victory, capturing over 72% against weak challengers in the open race vacated by Rep. Jasmine Crockett's unsuccessful U.S. Senate bid. Historical margins exceed 70% for Democrats in this Dallas-area battleground, bolstered by Haynes' local prominence as a megachurch pastor. The Republican runoff on May 26 between Everett Jackson and Sholdon Daniels, following a fragmented primary, underscores GOP challenges. Realistic shifts would require a major Democratic scandal, health issue for Haynes, or extraordinary Republican turnout surge amid national midterm dynamics, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วTX-30 House Election Winner
TX-30 House Election Winner
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$1,525 ปริมาณ
92%
Republican Party
$1,888 ปริมาณ
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% implied probability for the TX-30 House seat due to the district's strong Democratic lean—rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+25 partisan index—and Rev. Frederick Haynes III's dominant March 3 primary victory, capturing over 72% against weak challengers in the open race vacated by Rep. Jasmine Crockett's unsuccessful U.S. Senate bid. Historical margins exceed 70% for Democrats in this Dallas-area battleground, bolstered by Haynes' local prominence as a megachurch pastor. The Republican runoff on May 26 between Everett Jackson and Sholdon Daniels, following a fragmented primary, underscores GOP challenges. Realistic shifts would require a major Democratic scandal, health issue for Haynes, or extraordinary Republican turnout surge amid national midterm dynamics, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,413วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% implied probability for the TX-30 House seat due to the district's strong Democratic lean—rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+25 partisan index—and Rev. Frederick Haynes III's dominant March 3 primary victory, capturing over 72% against weak challengers in the open race vacated by Rep. Jasmine Crockett's unsuccessful U.S. Senate bid. Historical margins exceed 70% for Democrats in this Dallas-area battleground, bolstered by Haynes' local prominence as a megachurch pastor. The Republican runoff on May 26 between Everett Jackson and Sholdon Daniels, following a fragmented primary, underscores GOP challenges. Realistic shifts would require a major Democratic scandal, health issue for Haynes, or extraordinary Republican turnout surge amid national midterm dynamics, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,413วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% implied probability for the TX-30 House seat due to the district's strong Democratic lean—rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+25 partisan index—and Rev. Frederick Haynes III's dominant March 3 primary victory, capturing over 72% against weak challengers in the open race vacated by Rep. Jasmine Crockett's unsuccessful U.S. Senate bid. Historical margins exceed 70% for Democrats in this Dallas-area battleground, bolstered by Haynes' local prominence as a megachurch pastor. The Republican runoff on May 26 between Everett Jackson and Sholdon Daniels, following a fragmented primary, underscores GOP challenges. Realistic shifts would require a major Democratic scandal, health issue for Haynes, or extraordinary Republican turnout surge amid national midterm dynamics, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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