Internal divisions within Iran's leadership have intensified since the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and installed his son Mojtaba, who has remained largely absent from public view. Hardline factions, including lawmakers from the Paydari Front, have repeatedly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" or political coup by empowering the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining parliament and revolutionary institutions, and pursuing a truce with Washington. These claims peaked around July amid disputes over a fragile ceasefire and unauthorized attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz that derailed negotiations. Opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi have highlighted growing quiet defections among regime officials and military personnel as evidence of internal erosion. Despite these tensions and preparations for potential unrest, no coordinated military or security-led coup attempt meeting standard definitions has been widely reported, contributing to trader consensus pricing a low probability of such an event by year-end. Scheduled diplomatic and economic developments could still shift factional dynamics.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วIran coup attempt by...?
Iran coup attempt by...?
$2,135,704 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
8%
$2,135,704 ปริมาณ
December 31
$94,478 ปริมาณ
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal divisions within Iran's leadership have intensified since the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and installed his son Mojtaba, who has remained largely absent from public view. Hardline factions, including lawmakers from the Paydari Front, have repeatedly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" or political coup by empowering the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining parliament and revolutionary institutions, and pursuing a truce with Washington. These claims peaked around July amid disputes over a fragile ceasefire and unauthorized attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz that derailed negotiations. Opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi have highlighted growing quiet defections among regime officials and military personnel as evidence of internal erosion. Despite these tensions and preparations for potential unrest, no coordinated military or security-led coup attempt meeting standard definitions has been widely reported, contributing to trader consensus pricing a low probability of such an event by year-end. Scheduled diplomatic and economic developments could still shift factional dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,135,704วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal divisions within Iran's leadership have intensified since the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and installed his son Mojtaba, who has remained largely absent from public view. Hardline factions, including lawmakers from the Paydari Front, have repeatedly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" or political coup by empowering the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining parliament and revolutionary institutions, and pursuing a truce with Washington. These claims peaked around July amid disputes over a fragile ceasefire and unauthorized attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz that derailed negotiations. Opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi have highlighted growing quiet defections among regime officials and military personnel as evidence of internal erosion. Despite these tensions and preparations for potential unrest, no coordinated military or security-led coup attempt meeting standard definitions has been widely reported, contributing to trader consensus pricing a low probability of such an event by year-end. Scheduled diplomatic and economic developments could still shift factional dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,135,704วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Internal divisions within Iran's leadership have intensified since the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and installed his son Mojtaba, who has remained largely absent from public view. Hardline factions, including lawmakers from the Paydari Front, have repeatedly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" or political coup by empowering the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining parliament and revolutionary institutions, and pursuing a truce with Washington. These claims peaked around July amid disputes over a fragile ceasefire and unauthorized attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz that derailed negotiations. Opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi have highlighted growing quiet defections among regime officials and military personnel as evidence of internal erosion. Despite these tensions and preparations for potential unrest, no coordinated military or security-led coup attempt meeting standard definitions has been widely reported, contributing to trader consensus pricing a low probability of such an event by year-end. Scheduled diplomatic and economic developments could still shift factional dynamics.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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