Recent US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving its roughly 400 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium largely bottled up in tunnels and inaccessible for further processing. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations under the June 2026 memorandum of understanding have reinforced a status quo of halted enrichment and IAEA-monitored stockpile management, with no verified resumption of sensitive activities as of early September 2026. Limited IAEA access to bombed facilities sustains uncertainty about exact material locations, yet reports indicate the program remains dormant rather than advancing toward weaponization. High trader confidence in no nuclear test or acquisition before 2027 reflects these setbacks and diplomatic incentives for restraint. Realistic shifts could stem from a sudden Iranian breakout decision using existing highly enriched uranium, collapse of talks prompting renewed enrichment, or new intelligence revealing covert weaponization progress despite current barriers.