Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 96.3% implied probability that Jeffrey Epstein will not be confirmed alive before 2027, anchored in the official 2019 ruling by the New York City medical examiner of suicide by hanging while in federal custody at the Metropolitan Correctional Center. DOJ and FBI investigations, including a 2025 OIG report, confirmed negligence by guards and staff but upheld the suicide determination with no evidence of survival or body substitution. Recent February 2026 DOJ file releases and a March congressional probe into his final hours—including planned testimony from a guard on duty—have reignited online conspiracy theories and AI-generated hoaxes claiming he's alive, all debunked by fact-checkers. Absent irrefutable proof like DNA-verified sightings or official retractions, traders see negligible chance of confirmation by year-end.