Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a cool, unsettled pattern over Cape Town on September 15, with a frontal system and persistent northwesterly winds delivering showers and limiting overnight radiative cooling. This setup supports an expected minimum near 12–14 °C at official stations, consistent with climatological norms for mid-September. Model spread in boundary-layer moisture, wind gusts, and exact timing of clearing creates genuine uncertainty around whether the low falls into the lower or mid-teens, which explains the balanced market-implied odds on the 9 °C-or-below and 19 °C-or-higher tails alongside elevated probabilities for 12–14 °C outcomes. Updated guidance from the South African Weather Service or refined high-resolution runs ahead of the overnight period will likely narrow the range.