Recent short-term forecasts from multiple models indicate Warsaw will experience clearing skies and light westerly winds on September 2, supporting a minimum temperature near 11–15°C under high pressure near 1019 hPa. Clear nocturnal conditions promote efficient longwave radiative cooling from the surface, while the preceding shift from warmer late-August air masses introduces modest advection of cooler maritime air. Ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing and residual low-level moisture creates the tight clustering around 11–14°C outcomes, as even small increases in wind speed or thin cloud cover can limit cooling by 2–3°C. Traders weigh these dynamical factors against climatological September nighttime averages near 10–12°C, with the market-implied odds reflecting uncertainty in the exact timing of minimum temperatures during the overnight period.