Recent forecast model runs for Warsaw show a tight cluster of possible minimum temperatures around 12–15°C for September 8, reflecting the typical early-September climatological range near 12°C with modest day-to-day variability. Primary drivers include the strength and timing of any weak frontal passages or high-pressure ridges that modulate nighttime radiative cooling, cloud cover, and boundary-layer mixing, alongside subtle differences in advection of maritime versus continental air masses. Ensemble spreads in guidance from agencies such as ECMWF and national meteorological services remain wide because small shifts in wind direction or dew-point depression can alter the overnight low by 2–3°C. Traders are therefore weighting the balance between continued mild conditions and the first noticeable autumnal cooling trend. Updated model cycles and official Polish Institute of Meteorology briefings over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution.