Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.0-0.5% range at 100% implied probability, driven by INEGI's preliminary April 30 release showing a 0.1% year-over-year expansion amid a 0.8% quarter-over-quarter contraction—far below the 0.8% YoY consensus forecast. Weak January private consumption and investment declines, coupled with February's 0.3% annual IGAE drop, reflect cooling domestic demand, manufacturing softness, and U.S. trade policy uncertainties constraining nearshoring momentum after 2025's meager 0.8% full-year growth. Realistic challenges include upward revisions in INEGI's final Q2 data or stronger-than-expected services rebound, though fiscal constraints and Banxico's cautious 1.6% 2026 forecast limit upside risks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMexico GDP growth in Q1 2026?
Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026?
0.0-0.5% 100.0%
<0.0% <1%
0.5-1.0% <1%
1.0-1.5% <1%
$6,917 ปริมาณ
$6,917 ปริมาณ
Apr 30, 2026
<0.0%
No
0.0-0.5%
Yes
0.5-1.0%
No
1.0-1.5%
No
1.5-2.0%
No
2.0-2.5%
No
>2.5%
No
0.0-0.5% 100.0%
<0.0% <1%
0.5-1.0% <1%
1.0-1.5% <1%
$6,917 ปริมาณ
$6,917 ปริมาณ
Apr 30, 2026
<0.0%
$877 ปริมาณ
No
0.0-0.5%
$1,162 ปริมาณ
Yes
0.5-1.0%
$997 ปริมาณ
No
1.0-1.5%
$1,235 ปริมาณ
No
1.5-2.0%
$1,320 ปริมาณ
No
2.0-2.5%
$641 ปริมาณ
No
>2.5%
$684 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.0-0.5% range at 100% implied probability, driven by INEGI's preliminary April 30 release showing a 0.1% year-over-year expansion amid a 0.8% quarter-over-quarter contraction—far below the 0.8% YoY consensus forecast. Weak January private consumption and investment declines, coupled with February's 0.3% annual IGAE drop, reflect cooling domestic demand, manufacturing softness, and U.S. trade policy uncertainties constraining nearshoring momentum after 2025's meager 0.8% full-year growth. Realistic challenges include upward revisions in INEGI's final Q2 data or stronger-than-expected services rebound, though fiscal constraints and Banxico's cautious 1.6% 2026 forecast limit upside risks.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,917วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.0-0.5% range at 100% implied probability, driven by INEGI's preliminary April 30 release showing a 0.1% year-over-year expansion amid a 0.8% quarter-over-quarter contraction—far below the 0.8% YoY consensus forecast. Weak January private consumption and investment declines, coupled with February's 0.3% annual IGAE drop, reflect cooling domestic demand, manufacturing softness, and U.S. trade policy uncertainties constraining nearshoring momentum after 2025's meager 0.8% full-year growth. Realistic challenges include upward revisions in INEGI's final Q2 data or stronger-than-expected services rebound, though fiscal constraints and Banxico's cautious 1.6% 2026 forecast limit upside risks.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,917วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.0-0.5% range at 100% implied probability, driven by INEGI's preliminary April 30 release showing a 0.1% year-over-year expansion amid a 0.8% quarter-over-quarter contraction—far below the 0.8% YoY consensus forecast. Weak January private consumption and investment declines, coupled with February's 0.3% annual IGAE drop, reflect cooling domestic demand, manufacturing softness, and U.S. trade policy uncertainties constraining nearshoring momentum after 2025's meager 0.8% full-year growth. Realistic challenges include upward revisions in INEGI's final Q2 data or stronger-than-expected services rebound, though fiscal constraints and Banxico's cautious 1.6% 2026 forecast limit upside risks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย