Strong U.S. economic expansion through mid-2026 underpins the 92.5% market-implied odds against a recession by year-end, reflecting resilient nonfarm employment near record highs, investment-led growth via AI-related capital expenditures, and unemployment holding near 4.5%. Recent data show modest GDP expansion of 1.5-2.2% projected for the year amid uneven consumer spending but contained labor market weakness. The Federal Reserve's policy stance at the 3.5-3.75% target range, with potential for later tightening amid sticky inflation around 3%, has not yet derailed activity. Key risks that could alter trader consensus include escalation in Middle East energy shocks pushing core PCE higher or sharper labor market deterioration ahead of September FOMC and upcoming CPI releases.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วภาวะเศรษฐกิจถดถอยของสหรัฐอเมริกาภายในสิ้นปี 2026?
ภาวะเศรษฐกิจถดถอยของสหรัฐอเมริกาภายในสิ้นปี 2026?
ใช่
8% โอกาส
$1,703,581 ปริมาณ
$1,703,581 ปริมาณ
Jan 31, 2027
ใช่
8% โอกาส
$1,703,581 ปริมาณ
$1,703,581 ปริมาณ
Jan 31, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productStrong U.S. economic expansion through mid-2026 underpins the 92.5% market-implied odds against a recession by year-end, reflecting resilient nonfarm employment near record highs, investment-led growth via AI-related capital expenditures, and unemployment holding near 4.5%. Recent data show modest GDP expansion of 1.5-2.2% projected for the year amid uneven consumer spending but contained labor market weakness. The Federal Reserve's policy stance at the 3.5-3.75% target range, with potential for later tightening amid sticky inflation around 3%, has not yet derailed activity. Key risks that could alter trader consensus include escalation in Middle East energy shocks pushing core PCE higher or sharper labor market deterioration ahead of September FOMC and upcoming CPI releases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,703,581วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productStrong U.S. economic expansion through mid-2026 underpins the 92.5% market-implied odds against a recession by year-end, reflecting resilient nonfarm employment near record highs, investment-led growth via AI-related capital expenditures, and unemployment holding near 4.5%. Recent data show modest GDP expansion of 1.5-2.2% projected for the year amid uneven consumer spending but contained labor market weakness. The Federal Reserve's policy stance at the 3.5-3.75% target range, with potential for later tightening amid sticky inflation around 3%, has not yet derailed activity. Key risks that could alter trader consensus include escalation in Middle East energy shocks pushing core PCE higher or sharper labor market deterioration ahead of September FOMC and upcoming CPI releases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,703,581วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong U.S. economic expansion through mid-2026 underpins the 92.5% market-implied odds against a recession by year-end, reflecting resilient nonfarm employment near record highs, investment-led growth via AI-related capital expenditures, and unemployment holding near 4.5%. Recent data show modest GDP expansion of 1.5-2.2% projected for the year amid uneven consumer spending but contained labor market weakness. The Federal Reserve's policy stance at the 3.5-3.75% target range, with potential for later tightening amid sticky inflation around 3%, has not yet derailed activity. Key risks that could alter trader consensus include escalation in Middle East energy shocks pushing core PCE higher or sharper labor market deterioration ahead of September FOMC and upcoming CPI releases.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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