Traders assign a 76% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 primarily because no event meeting the market's strict resolution criteria has occurred through early August, despite ongoing global monitoring by agencies like the USGS and NOAA. Current seismic activity remains within historical baselines, with no magnitude 8+ earthquakes or extreme tropical systems producing the required thresholds for damage or casualties. Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons show typical variability without landfall intensity exceeding precedents, while ENSO-neutral conditions limit widespread extremes. This consensus reflects trader assessment of remaining months and low odds of a sudden outlier event shifting the outcome before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$232,528 ปริมาณ
$232,528 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$232,528 ปริมาณ
$232,528 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 76% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 primarily because no event meeting the market's strict resolution criteria has occurred through early August, despite ongoing global monitoring by agencies like the USGS and NOAA. Current seismic activity remains within historical baselines, with no magnitude 8+ earthquakes or extreme tropical systems producing the required thresholds for damage or casualties. Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons show typical variability without landfall intensity exceeding precedents, while ENSO-neutral conditions limit widespread extremes. This consensus reflects trader assessment of remaining months and low odds of a sudden outlier event shifting the outcome before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$232,528วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 76% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 primarily because no event meeting the market's strict resolution criteria has occurred through early August, despite ongoing global monitoring by agencies like the USGS and NOAA. Current seismic activity remains within historical baselines, with no magnitude 8+ earthquakes or extreme tropical systems producing the required thresholds for damage or casualties. Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons show typical variability without landfall intensity exceeding precedents, while ENSO-neutral conditions limit widespread extremes. This consensus reflects trader assessment of remaining months and low odds of a sudden outlier event shifting the outcome before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$232,528วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 76% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 primarily because no event meeting the market's strict resolution criteria has occurred through early August, despite ongoing global monitoring by agencies like the USGS and NOAA. Current seismic activity remains within historical baselines, with no magnitude 8+ earthquakes or extreme tropical systems producing the required thresholds for damage or casualties. Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons show typical variability without landfall intensity exceeding precedents, while ENSO-neutral conditions limit widespread extremes. This consensus reflects trader assessment of remaining months and low odds of a sudden outlier event shifting the outcome before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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