Recent Korea Meteorological Administration short-range guidance and ensemble model runs indicate a daily maximum near 33–34°C at the Incheon station on August 14, sustaining the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 31–33°C. Persistent high pressure and subsiding air maintain warm boundary-layer temperatures, while increasing cloud cover and modest easterly flow introduce slight cooling that keeps the distribution narrow rather than favoring extremes. Historical August baselines of 30–31°C, combined with the recent heatwave’s gradual moderation and absence of strong frontal or typhoon influences, support the current trader consensus; afternoon observations and any revisions to mixing depth or urban heat-island effects in the final 48 hours will determine whether the outcome settles at 32°C or edges higher.