**Market-implied probabilities for Tokyo's September 1 minimum temperature center on 23–25 °C (collectively >96 % implied probability), led by 24 °C at 48 %.** Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models show early-morning temperatures bottoming out near 23–24 °C under lingering high pressure and light easterly flow, with dew points in the low 20s supporting limited overnight cooling. Climatologically, early-September Tokyo lows average ~22–24 °C; the current pattern of residual summer warmth and minimal cloud cover or rain on the 1st keeps the distribution tightly clustered around this range. Recent JMA guidance and ensemble runs have shown little shift in the past 48 hours, reinforcing trader consensus on the narrow 23–24 °C band while assigning only marginal probability to outliers below 22 °C or above 25 °C.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 1?
24°C 48%
23°C 31%
25°C 15%
21°C 8%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 1, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
8%
22°C
1%
23°C
31%
24°C
48%
25°C
18%
26°C
2%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 48%
23°C 31%
25°C 15%
21°C 8%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 1, 2026
19°C or below
$203 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$51 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$226 Vol.
8%
22°C
$441 Vol.
1%
23°C
$290 Vol.
31%
24°C
$256 Vol.
48%
25°C
$364 Vol.
18%
26°C
$212 Vol.
2%
27°C
$83 Vol.
1%
28°C
$228 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$124 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied probabilities for Tokyo's September 1 minimum temperature center on 23–25 °C (collectively >96 % implied probability), led by 24 °C at 48 %.** Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models show early-morning temperatures bottoming out near 23–24 °C under lingering high pressure and light easterly flow, with dew points in the low 20s supporting limited overnight cooling. Climatologically, early-September Tokyo lows average ~22–24 °C; the current pattern of residual summer warmth and minimal cloud cover or rain on the 1st keeps the distribution tightly clustered around this range. Recent JMA guidance and ensemble runs have shown little shift in the past 48 hours, reinforcing trader consensus on the narrow 23–24 °C band while assigning only marginal probability to outliers below 22 °C or above 25 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,479Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied probabilities for Tokyo's September 1 minimum temperature center on 23–25 °C (collectively >96 % implied probability), led by 24 °C at 48 %.** Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models show early-morning temperatures bottoming out near 23–24 °C under lingering high pressure and light easterly flow, with dew points in the low 20s supporting limited overnight cooling. Climatologically, early-September Tokyo lows average ~22–24 °C; the current pattern of residual summer warmth and minimal cloud cover or rain on the 1st keeps the distribution tightly clustered around this range. Recent JMA guidance and ensemble runs have shown little shift in the past 48 hours, reinforcing trader consensus on the narrow 23–24 °C band while assigning only marginal probability to outliers below 22 °C or above 25 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,479Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied probabilities for Tokyo's September 1 minimum temperature center on 23–25 °C (collectively >96 % implied probability), led by 24 °C at 48 %.** Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models show early-morning temperatures bottoming out near 23–24 °C under lingering high pressure and light easterly flow, with dew points in the low 20s supporting limited overnight cooling. Climatologically, early-September Tokyo lows average ~22–24 °C; the current pattern of residual summer warmth and minimal cloud cover or rain on the 1st keeps the distribution tightly clustered around this range. Recent JMA guidance and ensemble runs have shown little shift in the past 48 hours, reinforcing trader consensus on the narrow 23–24 °C band while assigning only marginal probability to outliers below 22 °C or above 25 °C.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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