**Yabloko’s consistently low polling support and structural barriers explain the 91% implied probability that the party will not clear Russia’s 5% Duma threshold in the September 2026 legislative elections.** Recent polls place the liberal opposition party at roughly 1.4–2.8%, in line with its 1.21–1.34% result in 2021. United Russia and other parliamentary parties dominate voter intention surveys, while Yabloko’s anti-war “For peace and freedom” platform has not translated into measurable gains amid limited media access. The party secured Central Election Commission registration of its federal list and single-mandate candidates in late July 2026, yet dozens of its activists remain barred or face administrative and criminal measures that constrain campaigning. With elections weeks away and no signs of a polling surge, traders view the 5% threshold as effectively out of reach.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateRussia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
13% tsansa
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 20, 2026
13% tsansa
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.**Yabloko’s consistently low polling support and structural barriers explain the 91% implied probability that the party will not clear Russia’s 5% Duma threshold in the September 2026 legislative elections.** Recent polls place the liberal opposition party at roughly 1.4–2.8%, in line with its 1.21–1.34% result in 2021. United Russia and other parliamentary parties dominate voter intention surveys, while Yabloko’s anti-war “For peace and freedom” platform has not translated into measurable gains amid limited media access.
The party secured Central Election Commission registration of its federal list and single-mandate candidates in late July 2026, yet dozens of its activists remain barred or face administrative and criminal measures that constrain campaigning. With elections weeks away and no signs of a polling surge, traders view the 5% threshold as effectively out of reach.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ET
Volume
$2,045Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 20, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.**Yabloko’s consistently low polling support and structural barriers explain the 91% implied probability that the party will not clear Russia’s 5% Duma threshold in the September 2026 legislative elections.** Recent polls place the liberal opposition party at roughly 1.4–2.8%, in line with its 1.21–1.34% result in 2021. United Russia and other parliamentary parties dominate voter intention surveys, while Yabloko’s anti-war “For peace and freedom” platform has not translated into measurable gains amid limited media access.
The party secured Central Election Commission registration of its federal list and single-mandate candidates in late July 2026, yet dozens of its activists remain barred or face administrative and criminal measures that constrain campaigning. With elections weeks away and no signs of a polling surge, traders view the 5% threshold as effectively out of reach.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$2,045Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 20, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Yabloko’s consistently low polling support and structural barriers explain the 91% implied probability that the party will not clear Russia’s 5% Duma threshold in the September 2026 legislative elections.** Recent polls place the liberal opposition party at roughly 1.4–2.8%, in line with its 1.21–1.34% result in 2021. United Russia and other parliamentary parties dominate voter intention surveys, while Yabloko’s anti-war “For peace and freedom” platform has not translated into measurable gains amid limited media access. The party secured Central Election Commission registration of its federal list and single-mandate candidates in late July 2026, yet dozens of its activists remain barred or face administrative and criminal measures that constrain campaigning. With elections weeks away and no signs of a polling surge, traders view the 5% threshold as effectively out of reach.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong