Skip to main content
icon for How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?

How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?

icon for How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?

How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?

Aug 25

Aug 25

Sep 1

Sep 1

Aug 25

Aug 25

Sep 1

Sep 1

10 or more states 44%

5-6 states 38%

7-9 states 38%

0 states 27%

Polymarket
BAGO

10 or more states 44%

5-6 states 38%

7-9 states 38%

0 states 27%

Polymarket
BAGO

0 states

$1 Vol.

27%

1-2 states

$0 Vol.

26%

3-4 states

$1 Vol.

26%

5-6 states

$0 Vol.

38%

7-9 states

$1 Vol.

38%

10 or more states

$0 Vol.

44%

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent heat and persistent high pressure have driven flash drought expansion across the Southern Plains and Upper Midwest, with notable degradation in soil moisture and streamflows pushing more areas into D4 exceptional drought per the latest U.S. Drought Monitor (data valid August 25). Western states like Oregon and Idaho retain significant D4 coverage amid ongoing dryness, while Oklahoma shows expansion in the south-central region. A developing strong El Niño favors later relief in the Southwest but offers little near-term change before early September. Model consensus points to continued intensification risks from elevated evaporative demand, creating uncertainty around whether D4 will remain confined to roughly 5–9 states or spread to 10 or more by the week of September 1. The next USDM update will provide key resolution data.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.

Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".

The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.

Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.

Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.

The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volume
$3
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 3, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent heat and persistent high pressure have driven flash drought expansion across the Southern Plains and Upper Midwest, with notable degradation in soil moisture and streamflows pushing more areas into D4 exceptional drought per the latest U.S. Drought Monitor (data valid August 25). Western states like Oregon and Idaho retain significant D4 coverage amid ongoing dryness, while Oklahoma shows expansion in the south-central region. A developing strong El Niño favors later relief in the Southwest but offers little near-term change before early September. Model consensus points to continued intensification risks from elevated evaporative demand, creating uncertainty around whether D4 will remain confined to roughly 5–9 states or spread to 10 or more by the week of September 1. The next USDM update will provide key resolution data.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.

Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".

The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.

Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.

Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.

The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volume
$3
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 3, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

Kaugnay

icon for Will 10 or more states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Will 10 or more states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

52%
icon for Will Colorado have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Will Colorado have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

98%
icon for Will Arkansas have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Will Arkansas have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

99%

Mag-ingat sa mga external link.

Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 6 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "10 or more states" sa 45%, sinusundan ng "5-6 states" sa 38%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 45¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 45% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Aug 27, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?," i-browse ang 6 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?" ay "10 or more states" sa 45%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 45% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "5-6 states" sa 38%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.