Tight U.S. cattle supplies, with the national herd at a 75-year low of 86.2 million head entering 2026, remain the dominant driver of ground beef prices. USDA forecasts place 2026 beef production at 25.5 billion pounds, down roughly 2% from 2025 amid ongoing herd contraction from prior drought and elevated feed costs. Strong domestic demand has pushed average retail ground beef to $6.70–$6.90 per pound in early 2026, with broader fresh beef prices exceeding $9.50 per pound. Rising lean-beef imports, up over 13% year-to-date, provide partial relief but have not offset the supply shortfall. Modest heifer retention signals the potential start of herd rebuilding later in the cycle, though meaningful expansion is unlikely before 2028, keeping wholesale and retail prices elevated through the year.