The tight 54–45.5% split between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the October 2026 Bahia gubernatorial race stems from a direct 2022 runoff rematch complicated by shifting national alignments and local polling volatility. Rodrigues maintains stable approval ratings of 56–61% tied to education and infrastructure gains, yet faces headwinds on public security; Neto benefits from his party's 2025 rupture with the Lula administration and alignment with right-wing blocs, while leading among independents in several mid-2026 surveys. Bahia's two-round system, high undecided voter share, and fluid municipal alliance shifts— including dozens of mayors realigning since early 2026—keep probabilities fluid. Separation ahead of the first round will likely hinge on turnout among swing voters and final coalition formalizations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоJerônimo Rodrigues 54%
ACM Neto 45%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$38,312 Обс.
$38,312 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
54%
ACM Neto
45%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 54%
ACM Neto 45%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$38,312 Обс.
$38,312 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$11,431 Обс.
54%
ACM Neto
$12,799 Обс.
45%
José Carlos Aleluia
$3,825 Обс.
<1%
Kleber Rosa
$3,606 Обс.
<1%
João Roma
$2,236 Обс.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$2,327 Обс.
<1%
Rui Costa
$2,089 Обс.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight 54–45.5% split between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the October 2026 Bahia gubernatorial race stems from a direct 2022 runoff rematch complicated by shifting national alignments and local polling volatility. Rodrigues maintains stable approval ratings of 56–61% tied to education and infrastructure gains, yet faces headwinds on public security; Neto benefits from his party's 2025 rupture with the Lula administration and alignment with right-wing blocs, while leading among independents in several mid-2026 surveys. Bahia's two-round system, high undecided voter share, and fluid municipal alliance shifts— including dozens of mayors realigning since early 2026—keep probabilities fluid. Separation ahead of the first round will likely hinge on turnout among swing voters and final coalition formalizations.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Ринок відкрито: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Обсяг
$38,312Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight 54–45.5% split between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the October 2026 Bahia gubernatorial race stems from a direct 2022 runoff rematch complicated by shifting national alignments and local polling volatility. Rodrigues maintains stable approval ratings of 56–61% tied to education and infrastructure gains, yet faces headwinds on public security; Neto benefits from his party's 2025 rupture with the Lula administration and alignment with right-wing blocs, while leading among independents in several mid-2026 surveys. Bahia's two-round system, high undecided voter share, and fluid municipal alliance shifts— including dozens of mayors realigning since early 2026—keep probabilities fluid. Separation ahead of the first round will likely hinge on turnout among swing voters and final coalition formalizations.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Обсяг
$38,312Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight 54–45.5% split between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the October 2026 Bahia gubernatorial race stems from a direct 2022 runoff rematch complicated by shifting national alignments and local polling volatility. Rodrigues maintains stable approval ratings of 56–61% tied to education and infrastructure gains, yet faces headwinds on public security; Neto benefits from his party's 2025 rupture with the Lula administration and alignment with right-wing blocs, while leading among independents in several mid-2026 surveys. Bahia's two-round system, high undecided voter share, and fluid municipal alliance shifts— including dozens of mayors realigning since early 2026—keep probabilities fluid. Separation ahead of the first round will likely hinge on turnout among swing voters and final coalition formalizations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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