Incumbent Democrat Zoe Lofgren and Republican challenger Shane Lewis advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 18th congressional district, with Lofgren securing nearly 55% of the primary vote in a heavily Democratic Bay Area seat rated solid or safe Democratic by forecasters including the Cook Political Report. Trader consensus around 42-50% on specific margin brackets and outcomes reflects the district's consistent partisan tilt offset by uncertainty over turnout dynamics, potential national midterm headwinds, and limited recent polling on exact victory margins. Recent primary results and unchanged race ratings have anchored expectations of a Democratic hold, while factors such as voter mobilization in Santa Clara and Monterey counties or any late shifts in campaign spending could widen or narrow the final spread before November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-18 House Election Margin of Victory
CA-18 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 30-35% 42%
Democrat 5-15% 42%
Republican Wins 42%
Democrat 35-40% 42%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 45%+
42%
Democrat 40-45%
41%
Democrat 35-40%
42%
Democrat 30-35%
42%
Democrat 25-30%
42%
Democrat 20-25%
42%
Democrat 15-20%
42%
Democrat 5-15%
42%
Democrat 0-5%
42%
Republican Wins
42%
Democrat 30-35% 42%
Democrat 5-15% 42%
Republican Wins 42%
Democrat 35-40% 42%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 45%+
$0 Обс.
42%
Democrat 40-45%
$0 Обс.
41%
Democrat 35-40%
$0 Обс.
42%
Democrat 30-35%
$0 Обс.
42%
Democrat 25-30%
$0 Обс.
42%
Democrat 20-25%
$0 Обс.
42%
Democrat 15-20%
$0 Обс.
42%
Democrat 5-15%
$0 Обс.
42%
Democrat 0-5%
$0 Обс.
42%
Republican Wins
$0 Обс.
42%
The 2026 CA-18 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-18 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Zoe Lofgren and Republican challenger Shane Lewis advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 18th congressional district, with Lofgren securing nearly 55% of the primary vote in a heavily Democratic Bay Area seat rated solid or safe Democratic by forecasters including the Cook Political Report. Trader consensus around 42-50% on specific margin brackets and outcomes reflects the district's consistent partisan tilt offset by uncertainty over turnout dynamics, potential national midterm headwinds, and limited recent polling on exact victory margins. Recent primary results and unchanged race ratings have anchored expectations of a Democratic hold, while factors such as voter mobilization in Santa Clara and Monterey counties or any late shifts in campaign spending could widen or narrow the final spread before November.
The 2026 CA-18 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-18 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-18 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-18 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-18 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Zoe Lofgren and Republican challenger Shane Lewis advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 18th congressional district, with Lofgren securing nearly 55% of the primary vote in a heavily Democratic Bay Area seat rated solid or safe Democratic by forecasters including the Cook Political Report. Trader consensus around 42-50% on specific margin brackets and outcomes reflects the district's consistent partisan tilt offset by uncertainty over turnout dynamics, potential national midterm headwinds, and limited recent polling on exact victory margins. Recent primary results and unchanged race ratings have anchored expectations of a Democratic hold, while factors such as voter mobilization in Santa Clara and Monterey counties or any late shifts in campaign spending could widen or narrow the final spread before November.
The 2026 CA-18 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-18 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-18 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Zoe Lofgren and Republican challenger Shane Lewis advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 18th congressional district, with Lofgren securing nearly 55% of the primary vote in a heavily Democratic Bay Area seat rated solid or safe Democratic by forecasters including the Cook Political Report. Trader consensus around 42-50% on specific margin brackets and outcomes reflects the district's consistent partisan tilt offset by uncertainty over turnout dynamics, potential national midterm headwinds, and limited recent polling on exact victory margins. Recent primary results and unchanged race ratings have anchored expectations of a Democratic hold, while factors such as voter mobilization in Santa Clara and Monterey counties or any late shifts in campaign spending could widen or narrow the final spread before November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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