In Texas' 2nd Congressional District, a reliably Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+15, trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 87% implied probability following state Rep. Steve Toth's March primary victory over incumbent Dan Crenshaw, securing a conservative nominee aligned with the district's base in the Houston suburbs. Democrat Shaun Finnie advanced unopposed in the primary, facing historical GOP margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Absent recent polling or national wave shifts, the matchup remains firmly tilted Republican ahead of the November 3 general election, though House control's razor-thin margins amplify trader caution on any upset potential.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоTX-02 House Election Winner
TX-02 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
87%
Democratic Party
12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$3,917 Обс.
87%
Democratic Party
$4,114 Обс.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In Texas' 2nd Congressional District, a reliably Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+15, trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 87% implied probability following state Rep. Steve Toth's March primary victory over incumbent Dan Crenshaw, securing a conservative nominee aligned with the district's base in the Houston suburbs. Democrat Shaun Finnie advanced unopposed in the primary, facing historical GOP margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Absent recent polling or national wave shifts, the matchup remains firmly tilted Republican ahead of the November 3 general election, though House control's razor-thin margins amplify trader caution on any upset potential.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Обсяг
$8,031Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In Texas' 2nd Congressional District, a reliably Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+15, trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 87% implied probability following state Rep. Steve Toth's March primary victory over incumbent Dan Crenshaw, securing a conservative nominee aligned with the district's base in the Houston suburbs. Democrat Shaun Finnie advanced unopposed in the primary, facing historical GOP margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Absent recent polling or national wave shifts, the matchup remains firmly tilted Republican ahead of the November 3 general election, though House control's razor-thin margins amplify trader caution on any upset potential.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$8,031Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In Texas' 2nd Congressional District, a reliably Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+15, trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 87% implied probability following state Rep. Steve Toth's March primary victory over incumbent Dan Crenshaw, securing a conservative nominee aligned with the district's base in the Houston suburbs. Democrat Shaun Finnie advanced unopposed in the primary, facing historical GOP margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Absent recent polling or national wave shifts, the matchup remains firmly tilted Republican ahead of the November 3 general election, though House control's razor-thin margins amplify trader caution on any upset potential.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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