Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted CA-03 toward a Democratic lean, reflected in a D+6 Cook Partisan Voter Index and uniform Solid or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Ami Bera advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Robb Tucker, supported by substantial fundraising and established name recognition in the reconfigured Sacramento-area and Sierra Nevada portions of the district. These structural factors underpin trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include late-breaking scandals involving the leading candidate, significant health developments, or a sharp national political reversal before the November 3 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-03 House Election Winner
CA-03 House Election Winner
$43,504 Обс.
$43,504 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
3%
$43,504 Обс.
$43,504 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$25,885 Обс.
95%
Republican Party
$17,619 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted CA-03 toward a Democratic lean, reflected in a D+6 Cook Partisan Voter Index and uniform Solid or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Ami Bera advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Robb Tucker, supported by substantial fundraising and established name recognition in the reconfigured Sacramento-area and Sierra Nevada portions of the district. These structural factors underpin trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include late-breaking scandals involving the leading candidate, significant health developments, or a sharp national political reversal before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Обсяг
$43,504Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted CA-03 toward a Democratic lean, reflected in a D+6 Cook Partisan Voter Index and uniform Solid or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Ami Bera advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Robb Tucker, supported by substantial fundraising and established name recognition in the reconfigured Sacramento-area and Sierra Nevada portions of the district. These structural factors underpin trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include late-breaking scandals involving the leading candidate, significant health developments, or a sharp national political reversal before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$43,504Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted CA-03 toward a Democratic lean, reflected in a D+6 Cook Partisan Voter Index and uniform Solid or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Ami Bera advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Robb Tucker, supported by substantial fundraising and established name recognition in the reconfigured Sacramento-area and Sierra Nevada portions of the district. These structural factors underpin trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include late-breaking scandals involving the leading candidate, significant health developments, or a sharp national political reversal before the November 3 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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