Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton holds a commanding position in Arizona's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+4 partisan lean, driving trader consensus to 86.5% for a Democratic win. Stanton's substantial fundraising edge—over $1.8 million cash on hand as of late March—dwarfs challenger Kai Newkirk's resources in the July 21 Democratic primary, while his 2024 reelection margin of 52.7% underscores incumbency advantages in this Phoenix-area seat. The fragmented Republican primary features four contenders, including well-funded Zuhdi Jasser, but lacks a standout to overcome the district's Democratic tilt, with ratings unchanged post-filing deadline on March 23. Absent polling shifts or scandals, the general election on November 3 favors the Democratic nominee.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAZ-04 House Election Winner
AZ-04 House Election Winner
$10,554 Обс.
$10,554 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
87%
Republican Party
12%
$10,554 Обс.
$10,554 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$9,216 Обс.
87%
Republican Party
$1,338 Обс.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton holds a commanding position in Arizona's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+4 partisan lean, driving trader consensus to 86.5% for a Democratic win. Stanton's substantial fundraising edge—over $1.8 million cash on hand as of late March—dwarfs challenger Kai Newkirk's resources in the July 21 Democratic primary, while his 2024 reelection margin of 52.7% underscores incumbency advantages in this Phoenix-area seat. The fragmented Republican primary features four contenders, including well-funded Zuhdi Jasser, but lacks a standout to overcome the district's Democratic tilt, with ratings unchanged post-filing deadline on March 23. Absent polling shifts or scandals, the general election on November 3 favors the Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Обсяг
$10,554Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton holds a commanding position in Arizona's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+4 partisan lean, driving trader consensus to 86.5% for a Democratic win. Stanton's substantial fundraising edge—over $1.8 million cash on hand as of late March—dwarfs challenger Kai Newkirk's resources in the July 21 Democratic primary, while his 2024 reelection margin of 52.7% underscores incumbency advantages in this Phoenix-area seat. The fragmented Republican primary features four contenders, including well-funded Zuhdi Jasser, but lacks a standout to overcome the district's Democratic tilt, with ratings unchanged post-filing deadline on March 23. Absent polling shifts or scandals, the general election on November 3 favors the Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$10,554Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton holds a commanding position in Arizona's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+4 partisan lean, driving trader consensus to 86.5% for a Democratic win. Stanton's substantial fundraising edge—over $1.8 million cash on hand as of late March—dwarfs challenger Kai Newkirk's resources in the July 21 Democratic primary, while his 2024 reelection margin of 52.7% underscores incumbency advantages in this Phoenix-area seat. The fragmented Republican primary features four contenders, including well-funded Zuhdi Jasser, but lacks a standout to overcome the district's Democratic tilt, with ratings unchanged post-filing deadline on March 23. Absent polling shifts or scandals, the general election on November 3 favors the Democratic nominee.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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