Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner’s dominant position in the R+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index district underpins trader consensus pricing the Republican Party at 73% to win WA-05. Baumgartner, who secured 60.7% in his 2024 general election victory, holds a commanding fundraising edge with $973,000 cash on hand as of March 31, far outpacing Democratic challengers like Carmela Conley ($149,000) amid a fragmented field of five Democrats and independents ahead of the May 8 filing deadline and August 4 top-two primary. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift dynamics, reinforcing the seat’s Solid R Cook rating and historical incumbent advantages in midterm cycles.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWA-05 House Election Winner
WA-05 House Election Winner
$11,112 Обс.
$11,112 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
73%
Democratic Party
25%
$11,112 Обс.
$11,112 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$4,114 Обс.
73%
Democratic Party
$6,998 Обс.
25%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner’s dominant position in the R+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index district underpins trader consensus pricing the Republican Party at 73% to win WA-05. Baumgartner, who secured 60.7% in his 2024 general election victory, holds a commanding fundraising edge with $973,000 cash on hand as of March 31, far outpacing Democratic challengers like Carmela Conley ($149,000) amid a fragmented field of five Democrats and independents ahead of the May 8 filing deadline and August 4 top-two primary. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift dynamics, reinforcing the seat’s Solid R Cook rating and historical incumbent advantages in midterm cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Обсяг
$11,112Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner’s dominant position in the R+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index district underpins trader consensus pricing the Republican Party at 73% to win WA-05. Baumgartner, who secured 60.7% in his 2024 general election victory, holds a commanding fundraising edge with $973,000 cash on hand as of March 31, far outpacing Democratic challengers like Carmela Conley ($149,000) amid a fragmented field of five Democrats and independents ahead of the May 8 filing deadline and August 4 top-two primary. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift dynamics, reinforcing the seat’s Solid R Cook rating and historical incumbent advantages in midterm cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$11,112Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner’s dominant position in the R+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index district underpins trader consensus pricing the Republican Party at 73% to win WA-05. Baumgartner, who secured 60.7% in his 2024 general election victory, holds a commanding fundraising edge with $973,000 cash on hand as of March 31, far outpacing Democratic challengers like Carmela Conley ($149,000) amid a fragmented field of five Democrats and independents ahead of the May 8 filing deadline and August 4 top-two primary. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift dynamics, reinforcing the seat’s Solid R Cook rating and historical incumbent advantages in midterm cycles.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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