Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for victory in Missouri's 8th Congressional District, a Republican stronghold with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+27—seventh-most Republican nationally—where he secured 76% in 2024 amid weak Democratic opposition. Smith's $4.7 million cash-on-hand dwarfs the fragmented, underfunded Democratic primary field of Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, and Christopher Reichard, who report minimal receipts under $36,000 combined. No polls exist, but ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball deem it Solid/Safe Republican. Primaries on August 4 could test Smith against challengers Gordon Heslop and Johnathon Tune, though his dominance suggests minimal risk; late scandals, health issues, or a national Democratic wave remain slim upset paths before the November 3 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMO-08 House Election Winner
MO-08 House Election Winner
$26,781 Обс.
$26,781 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
6%
$26,781 Обс.
$26,781 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$16,580 Обс.
94%
Democratic Party
$10,201 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for victory in Missouri's 8th Congressional District, a Republican stronghold with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+27—seventh-most Republican nationally—where he secured 76% in 2024 amid weak Democratic opposition. Smith's $4.7 million cash-on-hand dwarfs the fragmented, underfunded Democratic primary field of Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, and Christopher Reichard, who report minimal receipts under $36,000 combined. No polls exist, but ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball deem it Solid/Safe Republican. Primaries on August 4 could test Smith against challengers Gordon Heslop and Johnathon Tune, though his dominance suggests minimal risk; late scandals, health issues, or a national Democratic wave remain slim upset paths before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Обсяг
$26,781Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for victory in Missouri's 8th Congressional District, a Republican stronghold with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+27—seventh-most Republican nationally—where he secured 76% in 2024 amid weak Democratic opposition. Smith's $4.7 million cash-on-hand dwarfs the fragmented, underfunded Democratic primary field of Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, and Christopher Reichard, who report minimal receipts under $36,000 combined. No polls exist, but ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball deem it Solid/Safe Republican. Primaries on August 4 could test Smith against challengers Gordon Heslop and Johnathon Tune, though his dominance suggests minimal risk; late scandals, health issues, or a national Democratic wave remain slim upset paths before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$26,781Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for victory in Missouri's 8th Congressional District, a Republican stronghold with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+27—seventh-most Republican nationally—where he secured 76% in 2024 amid weak Democratic opposition. Smith's $4.7 million cash-on-hand dwarfs the fragmented, underfunded Democratic primary field of Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, and Christopher Reichard, who report minimal receipts under $36,000 combined. No polls exist, but ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball deem it Solid/Safe Republican. Primaries on August 4 could test Smith against challengers Gordon Heslop and Johnathon Tune, though his dominance suggests minimal risk; late scandals, health issues, or a national Democratic wave remain slim upset paths before the November 3 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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