Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured his party's nomination with a decisive 77.7% in the August 2026 primary, facing Democrat Jordan Herrera in the November general election for Missouri's 4th congressional district. The seat carries a strong Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index near R+20 and Alford's 71% margin in 2024, even after redistricting added a sliver of Kansas City. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 91.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with this structural advantage and the absence of major recent developments—such as scandals, polling shifts, or national wave signals—that would alter the balance before Election Day. Late-breaking events like candidate health issues or turnout surprises remain the primary theoretical paths to a closer outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMO-04 House Election Winner
MO-04 House Election Winner
$50,168 Обс.
$50,168 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
8%
$50,168 Обс.
$50,168 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$32,792 Обс.
93%
Democratic Party
$17,376 Обс.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured his party's nomination with a decisive 77.7% in the August 2026 primary, facing Democrat Jordan Herrera in the November general election for Missouri's 4th congressional district. The seat carries a strong Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index near R+20 and Alford's 71% margin in 2024, even after redistricting added a sliver of Kansas City. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 91.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with this structural advantage and the absence of major recent developments—such as scandals, polling shifts, or national wave signals—that would alter the balance before Election Day. Late-breaking events like candidate health issues or turnout surprises remain the primary theoretical paths to a closer outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Обсяг
$50,168Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured his party's nomination with a decisive 77.7% in the August 2026 primary, facing Democrat Jordan Herrera in the November general election for Missouri's 4th congressional district. The seat carries a strong Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index near R+20 and Alford's 71% margin in 2024, even after redistricting added a sliver of Kansas City. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 91.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with this structural advantage and the absence of major recent developments—such as scandals, polling shifts, or national wave signals—that would alter the balance before Election Day. Late-breaking events like candidate health issues or turnout surprises remain the primary theoretical paths to a closer outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$50,168Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured his party's nomination with a decisive 77.7% in the August 2026 primary, facing Democrat Jordan Herrera in the November general election for Missouri's 4th congressional district. The seat carries a strong Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index near R+20 and Alford's 71% margin in 2024, even after redistricting added a sliver of Kansas City. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 91.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with this structural advantage and the absence of major recent developments—such as scandals, polling shifts, or national wave signals—that would alter the balance before Election Day. Late-breaking events like candidate health issues or turnout surprises remain the primary theoretical paths to a closer outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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