The August 4, 2026, top-two primary in Washington's 4th congressional district produced a clear advance for Republican Amanda McKinney alongside Democrat John Duresky, reflecting the open seat created by incumbent Dan Newhouse's retirement. The district's consistent Republican partisan lean, rated Solid Republican by major forecasters, continues to anchor trader assessments ahead of the November general election. Limited subsequent polling and fundraising data have shown no material shifts that would elevate the Democratic nominee's position, while the primary vote split among multiple Republican contenders did not prevent the party's standard-bearer from securing the stronger general-election matchup. These structural and recent primary dynamics underpin the current implied probability favoring the Republican outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWA-04 House Election Winner
WA-04 House Election Winner
$45,189 Обс.
$45,189 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
90%
Democratic Party
8%
$45,189 Обс.
$45,189 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$24,205 Обс.
90%
Democratic Party
$20,984 Обс.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The August 4, 2026, top-two primary in Washington's 4th congressional district produced a clear advance for Republican Amanda McKinney alongside Democrat John Duresky, reflecting the open seat created by incumbent Dan Newhouse's retirement. The district's consistent Republican partisan lean, rated Solid Republican by major forecasters, continues to anchor trader assessments ahead of the November general election. Limited subsequent polling and fundraising data have shown no material shifts that would elevate the Democratic nominee's position, while the primary vote split among multiple Republican contenders did not prevent the party's standard-bearer from securing the stronger general-election matchup. These structural and recent primary dynamics underpin the current implied probability favoring the Republican outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Обсяг
$45,189Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The August 4, 2026, top-two primary in Washington's 4th congressional district produced a clear advance for Republican Amanda McKinney alongside Democrat John Duresky, reflecting the open seat created by incumbent Dan Newhouse's retirement. The district's consistent Republican partisan lean, rated Solid Republican by major forecasters, continues to anchor trader assessments ahead of the November general election. Limited subsequent polling and fundraising data have shown no material shifts that would elevate the Democratic nominee's position, while the primary vote split among multiple Republican contenders did not prevent the party's standard-bearer from securing the stronger general-election matchup. These structural and recent primary dynamics underpin the current implied probability favoring the Republican outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$45,189Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The August 4, 2026, top-two primary in Washington's 4th congressional district produced a clear advance for Republican Amanda McKinney alongside Democrat John Duresky, reflecting the open seat created by incumbent Dan Newhouse's retirement. The district's consistent Republican partisan lean, rated Solid Republican by major forecasters, continues to anchor trader assessments ahead of the November general election. Limited subsequent polling and fundraising data have shown no material shifts that would elevate the Democratic nominee's position, while the primary vote split among multiple Republican contenders did not prevent the party's standard-bearer from securing the stronger general-election matchup. These structural and recent primary dynamics underpin the current implied probability favoring the Republican outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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