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First Round Outright Winner in the LA-01 House Election?

icon for First Round Outright Winner in the LA-01 House Election?
Політика·Проміжні семестри

First Round Outright Winner in the LA-01 House Election?

95% шанс
Polymarket
НОВЕ
95% шанс
Polymarket
НОВЕ
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise faces a nonpartisan primary on November 3, 2026, under Louisiana's majority-vote system for the 1st Congressional District, with a potential December runoff if no candidate exceeds 50 percent. Traders price the outright first-round victory at 94.5 percent due to the district's R+19 to R+20 partisan lean, Scalise's consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, and his substantial fundraising edge over challengers including Democrat Lauren Jewett and fellow Republican Randall Arrington. Recent candidate filings closed August 7 with no significant opposition consolidation or polling shifts, while independent and split Republican entries are viewed as unlikely to prevent Scalise from clearing the threshold. The Supreme Court decision canceling earlier partisan primaries added procedural clarity without altering the underlying structural advantage.

The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
Обсяг
$1,601
Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise faces a nonpartisan primary on November 3, 2026, under Louisiana's majority-vote system for the 1st Congressional District, with a potential December runoff if no candidate exceeds 50 percent. Traders price the outright first-round victory at 94.5 percent due to the district's R+19 to R+20 partisan lean, Scalise's consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, and his substantial fundraising edge over challengers including Democrat Lauren Jewett and fellow Republican Randall Arrington. Recent candidate filings closed August 7 with no significant opposition consolidation or polling shifts, while independent and split Republican entries are viewed as unlikely to prevent Scalise from clearing the threshold. The Supreme Court decision canceling earlier partisan primaries added procedural clarity without altering the underlying structural advantage.

The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
Обсяг
$1,601
Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.

Пов'язане

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First Round Outright Winner in the LA-02 House Election?

72%
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First Round Outright Winner in the LA-06 House Election?

2%
icon for First Round Outright Winner in the LA-03 House Election?

First Round Outright Winner in the LA-03 House Election?

92%

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«First Round Outright Winner in the LA-01 House Election?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції «Так» або «Ні» залежно від того, чи вірять вони, що ця подія станеться. Поточна краудсорсингова ймовірність — 95% для «Yes». Наприклад, якщо «Так» коштує 95¢, ринок колективно оцінює шанс цієї події в 95%. Ці шанси безперервно змінюються, коли трейдери реагують на нові події. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

«First Round Outright Winner in the LA-01 House Election?» — це нещодавно створений ринок на Polymarket, запущений Aug 14, 2026. Як ранній ринок, це ваша можливість бути серед перших трейдерів, що встановлюють шанси. Ви також можете зберегти цю сторінку в закладки для відстеження обсягу.

Щоб торгувати на «First Round Outright Winner in the LA-01 House Election?», просто оберіть, чи вірите ви, що відповідь — «Так» або «Ні». Кожна сторона має поточну ціну, що відображає ймовірність ринку. Введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви купили акції «Так» і результат — «Так», кожна акція виплачує $1. Якщо «Ні» — ваші акції «Так» коштують $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточна ймовірність для «First Round Outright Winner in the LA-01 House Election?» — 95% для «Yes». Це означає, що спільнота Polymarket вважає, що є 95% шанс, що ця подія станеться. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі.

Правила вирішення для «First Round Outright Winner in the LA-01 House Election?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.