Incumbent Republican Chris Smith, seeking a record 24th term in the safely Republican NJ-04 district (Cook PVI R+14), dominates trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for the November 3, 2026 general election, bolstered by his uncontested June 2 Republican primary, $456,000 cash-on-hand as of late March, and 67% victory margin in 2024. Recent candidate filings finalized in early April confirmed a weak Democratic primary field—Rachel Peace with county party backing and scant $4,000 cash versus electrician John Blake—along with three failed Democratic petitions and a minor independent bid, underscoring limited opposition firepower. While entrenched ratings from Cook (Solid R) and Sabato (Safe R) anchor the pricing, a Democratic fundraising surge, national midterm wave, or unforeseen Smith health/scandal event could narrow the gap ahead of primaries.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNJ-04 House Election Winner
NJ-04 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$390 Обс.
91%
Democratic Party
$0 Обс.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Chris Smith, seeking a record 24th term in the safely Republican NJ-04 district (Cook PVI R+14), dominates trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for the November 3, 2026 general election, bolstered by his uncontested June 2 Republican primary, $456,000 cash-on-hand as of late March, and 67% victory margin in 2024. Recent candidate filings finalized in early April confirmed a weak Democratic primary field—Rachel Peace with county party backing and scant $4,000 cash versus electrician John Blake—along with three failed Democratic petitions and a minor independent bid, underscoring limited opposition firepower. While entrenched ratings from Cook (Solid R) and Sabato (Safe R) anchor the pricing, a Democratic fundraising surge, national midterm wave, or unforeseen Smith health/scandal event could narrow the gap ahead of primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Обсяг
$390Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Chris Smith, seeking a record 24th term in the safely Republican NJ-04 district (Cook PVI R+14), dominates trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for the November 3, 2026 general election, bolstered by his uncontested June 2 Republican primary, $456,000 cash-on-hand as of late March, and 67% victory margin in 2024. Recent candidate filings finalized in early April confirmed a weak Democratic primary field—Rachel Peace with county party backing and scant $4,000 cash versus electrician John Blake—along with three failed Democratic petitions and a minor independent bid, underscoring limited opposition firepower. While entrenched ratings from Cook (Solid R) and Sabato (Safe R) anchor the pricing, a Democratic fundraising surge, national midterm wave, or unforeseen Smith health/scandal event could narrow the gap ahead of primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$390Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Chris Smith, seeking a record 24th term in the safely Republican NJ-04 district (Cook PVI R+14), dominates trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for the November 3, 2026 general election, bolstered by his uncontested June 2 Republican primary, $456,000 cash-on-hand as of late March, and 67% victory margin in 2024. Recent candidate filings finalized in early April confirmed a weak Democratic primary field—Rachel Peace with county party backing and scant $4,000 cash versus electrician John Blake—along with three failed Democratic petitions and a minor independent bid, underscoring limited opposition firepower. While entrenched ratings from Cook (Solid R) and Sabato (Safe R) anchor the pricing, a Democratic fundraising surge, national midterm wave, or unforeseen Smith health/scandal event could narrow the gap ahead of primaries.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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