Incumbent Rep. Madeleine Dean (D) commands trader consensus at 91% implied probability to retain Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District, anchored by the seat's entrenched Democratic advantage in suburban Montgomery and Berks counties, where Biden carried by double digits in 2024. Her strong reelection history, committee assignments on Appropriations and Foreign Affairs, and Cook Political Report's assessment of a straightforward path to victory underpin this positioning, with minimal Republican recruitment or fundraising momentum evident ahead of the May 19 closed primaries. Scenarios to challenge include a well-funded GOP nominee emerging post-primary, a late scandal impacting Dean, or national midterm dynamics boosting Republican turnout in battleground Pennsylvania.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоPA-04 House Election Winner
PA-04 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
91%
Republican Party
8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$0 Обс.
91%
Republican Party
$0 Обс.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Madeleine Dean (D) commands trader consensus at 91% implied probability to retain Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District, anchored by the seat's entrenched Democratic advantage in suburban Montgomery and Berks counties, where Biden carried by double digits in 2024. Her strong reelection history, committee assignments on Appropriations and Foreign Affairs, and Cook Political Report's assessment of a straightforward path to victory underpin this positioning, with minimal Republican recruitment or fundraising momentum evident ahead of the May 19 closed primaries. Scenarios to challenge include a well-funded GOP nominee emerging post-primary, a late scandal impacting Dean, or national midterm dynamics boosting Republican turnout in battleground Pennsylvania.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Madeleine Dean (D) commands trader consensus at 91% implied probability to retain Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District, anchored by the seat's entrenched Democratic advantage in suburban Montgomery and Berks counties, where Biden carried by double digits in 2024. Her strong reelection history, committee assignments on Appropriations and Foreign Affairs, and Cook Political Report's assessment of a straightforward path to victory underpin this positioning, with minimal Republican recruitment or fundraising momentum evident ahead of the May 19 closed primaries. Scenarios to challenge include a well-funded GOP nominee emerging post-primary, a late scandal impacting Dean, or national midterm dynamics boosting Republican turnout in battleground Pennsylvania.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Madeleine Dean (D) commands trader consensus at 91% implied probability to retain Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District, anchored by the seat's entrenched Democratic advantage in suburban Montgomery and Berks counties, where Biden carried by double digits in 2024. Her strong reelection history, committee assignments on Appropriations and Foreign Affairs, and Cook Political Report's assessment of a straightforward path to victory underpin this positioning, with minimal Republican recruitment or fundraising momentum evident ahead of the May 19 closed primaries. Scenarios to challenge include a well-funded GOP nominee emerging post-primary, a late scandal impacting Dean, or national midterm dynamics boosting Republican turnout in battleground Pennsylvania.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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