Republican Aaron Flint holds a 62% implied probability in the MT-01 race due to the district’s R+5 Cook PVI and consistent “Likely Republican” ratings from forecasters. The open seat created by Ryan Zinke’s retirement drew strong GOP primary turnout, with Trump-endorsed radio host Flint defeating higher-profile rivals. Democrat Sam Forstag won a competitive primary but faces structural headwinds in a district that has favored Republicans in recent cycles. A single late-June internal poll showed a statistical tie, yet the absence of subsequent public surveys and both parties’ national committee targeting underscore the race’s underlying partisan tilt. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution trigger.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMT-01 House Election Winner
MT-01 House Election Winner
$11,119 Обс.
$11,119 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
62%
Democratic Party
38%
$11,119 Обс.
$11,119 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$6,168 Обс.
62%
Democratic Party
$4,952 Обс.
38%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Aaron Flint holds a 62% implied probability in the MT-01 race due to the district’s R+5 Cook PVI and consistent “Likely Republican” ratings from forecasters. The open seat created by Ryan Zinke’s retirement drew strong GOP primary turnout, with Trump-endorsed radio host Flint defeating higher-profile rivals. Democrat Sam Forstag won a competitive primary but faces structural headwinds in a district that has favored Republicans in recent cycles. A single late-June internal poll showed a statistical tie, yet the absence of subsequent public surveys and both parties’ national committee targeting underscore the race’s underlying partisan tilt. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution trigger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
Обсяг
$11,119Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Aaron Flint holds a 62% implied probability in the MT-01 race due to the district’s R+5 Cook PVI and consistent “Likely Republican” ratings from forecasters. The open seat created by Ryan Zinke’s retirement drew strong GOP primary turnout, with Trump-endorsed radio host Flint defeating higher-profile rivals. Democrat Sam Forstag won a competitive primary but faces structural headwinds in a district that has favored Republicans in recent cycles. A single late-June internal poll showed a statistical tie, yet the absence of subsequent public surveys and both parties’ national committee targeting underscore the race’s underlying partisan tilt. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution trigger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$11,119Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Republican Aaron Flint holds a 62% implied probability in the MT-01 race due to the district’s R+5 Cook PVI and consistent “Likely Republican” ratings from forecasters. The open seat created by Ryan Zinke’s retirement drew strong GOP primary turnout, with Trump-endorsed radio host Flint defeating higher-profile rivals. Democrat Sam Forstag won a competitive primary but faces structural headwinds in a district that has favored Republicans in recent cycles. A single late-June internal poll showed a statistical tie, yet the absence of subsequent public surveys and both parties’ national committee targeting underscore the race’s underlying partisan tilt. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution trigger.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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