Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advanced from the August 4, 2026, top-two primary alongside Republican state Sen. John Braun, with Perez narrowly leading at 38.9% to Braun's 38.7%. The district's R+2 partisan voting index and 2024 results, where Perez won reelection by about 4 points in a seat carried by Donald Trump, frame it as one of the nation's most competitive House contests. Trader consensus reflected in the 87.5% Democratic pricing appears driven by Perez's established incumbency advantages, centrist voting record that has appealed to crossover voters, and early general-election positioning against a challenger whose Trump endorsement has not yet translated into polling separation. Braun's state Senate profile and national Republican focus on the seat introduce competitive pressure, yet the narrow primary margin and structural factors continue to anchor expectations for the November 3 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWA-03 House Election Winner
WA-03 House Election Winner
$27,021 Обс.
$27,021 Обс.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
88%
Republican Party
11%
$27,021 Обс.
$27,021 Обс.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$17,328 Обс.
88%
Republican Party
$9,693 Обс.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advanced from the August 4, 2026, top-two primary alongside Republican state Sen. John Braun, with Perez narrowly leading at 38.9% to Braun's 38.7%. The district's R+2 partisan voting index and 2024 results, where Perez won reelection by about 4 points in a seat carried by Donald Trump, frame it as one of the nation's most competitive House contests. Trader consensus reflected in the 87.5% Democratic pricing appears driven by Perez's established incumbency advantages, centrist voting record that has appealed to crossover voters, and early general-election positioning against a challenger whose Trump endorsement has not yet translated into polling separation. Braun's state Senate profile and national Republican focus on the seat introduce competitive pressure, yet the narrow primary margin and structural factors continue to anchor expectations for the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Обсяг
$27,021Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advanced from the August 4, 2026, top-two primary alongside Republican state Sen. John Braun, with Perez narrowly leading at 38.9% to Braun's 38.7%. The district's R+2 partisan voting index and 2024 results, where Perez won reelection by about 4 points in a seat carried by Donald Trump, frame it as one of the nation's most competitive House contests. Trader consensus reflected in the 87.5% Democratic pricing appears driven by Perez's established incumbency advantages, centrist voting record that has appealed to crossover voters, and early general-election positioning against a challenger whose Trump endorsement has not yet translated into polling separation. Braun's state Senate profile and national Republican focus on the seat introduce competitive pressure, yet the narrow primary margin and structural factors continue to anchor expectations for the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$27,021Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advanced from the August 4, 2026, top-two primary alongside Republican state Sen. John Braun, with Perez narrowly leading at 38.9% to Braun's 38.7%. The district's R+2 partisan voting index and 2024 results, where Perez won reelection by about 4 points in a seat carried by Donald Trump, frame it as one of the nation's most competitive House contests. Trader consensus reflected in the 87.5% Democratic pricing appears driven by Perez's established incumbency advantages, centrist voting record that has appealed to crossover voters, and early general-election positioning against a challenger whose Trump endorsement has not yet translated into polling separation. Braun's state Senate profile and national Republican focus on the seat introduce competitive pressure, yet the narrow primary margin and structural factors continue to anchor expectations for the November 3 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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