The Missouri Supreme Court’s September 2026 ruling blocking the newly gerrymandered congressional map and restoring prior district lines has strengthened the position of incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver in the MO-05 race. The old boundaries encompass heavily Democratic portions of Kansas City and surrounding areas that delivered Cleaver 60 percent of the vote in 2024, creating a structural advantage reflected in the current trader consensus. Cleaver faces no primary opposition, while Republican nominee Rick Brattin emerged from an August primary featuring multiple candidates. With the general election still two months away and no major late-cycle shifts reported, the implied probability favors the Democratic nominee due to incumbency, district demographics, and the recent judicial decision preserving the prior map.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMO-05 House Election Winner
MO-05 House Election Winner
$19,322 Обс.
$19,322 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
80%
Republican Party
19%
$19,322 Обс.
$19,322 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,446 Обс.
80%
Republican Party
$12,876 Обс.
19%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Missouri Supreme Court’s September 2026 ruling blocking the newly gerrymandered congressional map and restoring prior district lines has strengthened the position of incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver in the MO-05 race. The old boundaries encompass heavily Democratic portions of Kansas City and surrounding areas that delivered Cleaver 60 percent of the vote in 2024, creating a structural advantage reflected in the current trader consensus. Cleaver faces no primary opposition, while Republican nominee Rick Brattin emerged from an August primary featuring multiple candidates. With the general election still two months away and no major late-cycle shifts reported, the implied probability favors the Democratic nominee due to incumbency, district demographics, and the recent judicial decision preserving the prior map.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
Обсяг
$19,322Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Missouri Supreme Court’s September 2026 ruling blocking the newly gerrymandered congressional map and restoring prior district lines has strengthened the position of incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver in the MO-05 race. The old boundaries encompass heavily Democratic portions of Kansas City and surrounding areas that delivered Cleaver 60 percent of the vote in 2024, creating a structural advantage reflected in the current trader consensus. Cleaver faces no primary opposition, while Republican nominee Rick Brattin emerged from an August primary featuring multiple candidates. With the general election still two months away and no major late-cycle shifts reported, the implied probability favors the Democratic nominee due to incumbency, district demographics, and the recent judicial decision preserving the prior map.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$19,322Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...The Missouri Supreme Court’s September 2026 ruling blocking the newly gerrymandered congressional map and restoring prior district lines has strengthened the position of incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver in the MO-05 race. The old boundaries encompass heavily Democratic portions of Kansas City and surrounding areas that delivered Cleaver 60 percent of the vote in 2024, creating a structural advantage reflected in the current trader consensus. Cleaver faces no primary opposition, while Republican nominee Rick Brattin emerged from an August primary featuring multiple candidates. With the general election still two months away and no major late-cycle shifts reported, the implied probability favors the Democratic nominee due to incumbency, district demographics, and the recent judicial decision preserving the prior map.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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