Democratic incumbent Jim Costa advanced from the June 2 primary in California's 21st congressional district with a clear lead, positioning him to face Republican Kyle Kirkland in the November general election. The Central Valley seat has a modest Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and recent voting patterns, while Costa secured reelection in 2024 by a 5-point margin. Forecasters rate the race as likely Democratic, consistent with the district's registration edge and the structural advantages of incumbency in House contests. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 88% implied probability to a Democratic hold, underscoring the limited path for a Republican upset absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions before Election Day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-21 House Election Winner
CA-21 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
88%
Republican Party
11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,347 Обс.
88%
Republican Party
$1,694 Обс.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Jim Costa advanced from the June 2 primary in California's 21st congressional district with a clear lead, positioning him to face Republican Kyle Kirkland in the November general election. The Central Valley seat has a modest Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and recent voting patterns, while Costa secured reelection in 2024 by a 5-point margin. Forecasters rate the race as likely Democratic, consistent with the district's registration edge and the structural advantages of incumbency in House contests. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 88% implied probability to a Democratic hold, underscoring the limited path for a Republican upset absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Обсяг
$5,042Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Jim Costa advanced from the June 2 primary in California's 21st congressional district with a clear lead, positioning him to face Republican Kyle Kirkland in the November general election. The Central Valley seat has a modest Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and recent voting patterns, while Costa secured reelection in 2024 by a 5-point margin. Forecasters rate the race as likely Democratic, consistent with the district's registration edge and the structural advantages of incumbency in House contests. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 88% implied probability to a Democratic hold, underscoring the limited path for a Republican upset absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$5,042Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Jim Costa advanced from the June 2 primary in California's 21st congressional district with a clear lead, positioning him to face Republican Kyle Kirkland in the November general election. The Central Valley seat has a modest Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and recent voting patterns, while Costa secured reelection in 2024 by a 5-point margin. Forecasters rate the race as likely Democratic, consistent with the district's registration edge and the structural advantages of incumbency in House contests. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 88% implied probability to a Democratic hold, underscoring the limited path for a Republican upset absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions before Election Day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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