Republican incumbent Andrew Garbarino holds a clear edge in New York's 2nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the Republican Party a 73.5% implied probability of victory. The South Shore Long Island seat features a partisan voting index favoring Republicans by roughly six points and delivered Garbarino a 59.8% win in 2024. Recent developments include the cancellation of the Democratic primary, allowing Patrick Halpin to advance unopposed on the Democratic and Working Families lines, while Garbarino faces minimal primary opposition ahead of the June 23 contests. Nonpartisan race raters classify the contest as Solid Republican, reflecting the district's consistent support for GOP candidates in recent cycles and the absence of major polling shifts or external events that would alter the competitive landscape before the general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNY-02 House Election Winner
NY-02 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
74%
Democratic Party
27%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$2,861 Обс.
74%
Democratic Party
$5,973 Обс.
27%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Andrew Garbarino holds a clear edge in New York's 2nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the Republican Party a 73.5% implied probability of victory. The South Shore Long Island seat features a partisan voting index favoring Republicans by roughly six points and delivered Garbarino a 59.8% win in 2024. Recent developments include the cancellation of the Democratic primary, allowing Patrick Halpin to advance unopposed on the Democratic and Working Families lines, while Garbarino faces minimal primary opposition ahead of the June 23 contests. Nonpartisan race raters classify the contest as Solid Republican, reflecting the district's consistent support for GOP candidates in recent cycles and the absence of major polling shifts or external events that would alter the competitive landscape before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Обсяг
$8,834Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Andrew Garbarino holds a clear edge in New York's 2nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the Republican Party a 73.5% implied probability of victory. The South Shore Long Island seat features a partisan voting index favoring Republicans by roughly six points and delivered Garbarino a 59.8% win in 2024. Recent developments include the cancellation of the Democratic primary, allowing Patrick Halpin to advance unopposed on the Democratic and Working Families lines, while Garbarino faces minimal primary opposition ahead of the June 23 contests. Nonpartisan race raters classify the contest as Solid Republican, reflecting the district's consistent support for GOP candidates in recent cycles and the absence of major polling shifts or external events that would alter the competitive landscape before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$8,834Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Andrew Garbarino holds a clear edge in New York's 2nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the Republican Party a 73.5% implied probability of victory. The South Shore Long Island seat features a partisan voting index favoring Republicans by roughly six points and delivered Garbarino a 59.8% win in 2024. Recent developments include the cancellation of the Democratic primary, allowing Patrick Halpin to advance unopposed on the Democratic and Working Families lines, while Garbarino faces minimal primary opposition ahead of the June 23 contests. Nonpartisan race raters classify the contest as Solid Republican, reflecting the district's consistent support for GOP candidates in recent cycles and the absence of major polling shifts or external events that would alter the competitive landscape before the general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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