Incumbent Republican Vince Fong's strong primary performance and the district's established partisan lean keep trader focus on Republican victory margins clustered around 30-45 points. With Sandra Van Scotter advancing as the Democratic nominee after the June top-two primary, limited recent campaign developments or polling shifts have left the general election outlook stable ahead of November. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing assigns roughly equal weight to several Republican margin buckets while assigning lower probability to a Democratic win, consistent with the seat's solid Republican rating from multiple forecasters and the absence of major late-breaking events that could narrow the gap.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-20 House Election Margin of Victory
CA-20 House Election Margin of Victory
Republican 20-25% 46%
Republican 15-20% 45%
Republican 5-15% 45%
Republican 0-5% 44%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 45%+
43%
Republican 40-45%
43%
Republican 35-40%
43%
Republican 30-35%
43%
Republican 25-30%
43%
Republican 20-25%
46%
Republican 15-20%
45%
Republican 5-15%
45%
Republican 0-5%
44%
Democrat Wins
27%
Republican 20-25% 46%
Republican 15-20% 45%
Republican 5-15% 45%
Republican 0-5% 44%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 45%+
$0 Обс.
43%
Republican 40-45%
$0 Обс.
43%
Republican 35-40%
$0 Обс.
43%
Republican 30-35%
$0 Обс.
43%
Republican 25-30%
$0 Обс.
43%
Republican 20-25%
$0 Обс.
46%
Republican 15-20%
$0 Обс.
45%
Republican 5-15%
$0 Обс.
45%
Republican 0-5%
$0 Обс.
44%
Democrat Wins
$10 Обс.
27%
The 2026 CA-20 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Vince Fong's strong primary performance and the district's established partisan lean keep trader focus on Republican victory margins clustered around 30-45 points. With Sandra Van Scotter advancing as the Democratic nominee after the June top-two primary, limited recent campaign developments or polling shifts have left the general election outlook stable ahead of November. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing assigns roughly equal weight to several Republican margin buckets while assigning lower probability to a Democratic win, consistent with the seat's solid Republican rating from multiple forecasters and the absence of major late-breaking events that could narrow the gap.
The 2026 CA-20 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
Обсяг
$10Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-20 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Vince Fong's strong primary performance and the district's established partisan lean keep trader focus on Republican victory margins clustered around 30-45 points. With Sandra Van Scotter advancing as the Democratic nominee after the June top-two primary, limited recent campaign developments or polling shifts have left the general election outlook stable ahead of November. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing assigns roughly equal weight to several Republican margin buckets while assigning lower probability to a Democratic win, consistent with the seat's solid Republican rating from multiple forecasters and the absence of major late-breaking events that could narrow the gap.
The 2026 CA-20 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$10Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Republican Vince Fong's strong primary performance and the district's established partisan lean keep trader focus on Republican victory margins clustered around 30-45 points. With Sandra Van Scotter advancing as the Democratic nominee after the June top-two primary, limited recent campaign developments or polling shifts have left the general election outlook stable ahead of November. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing assigns roughly equal weight to several Republican margin buckets while assigning lower probability to a Democratic win, consistent with the seat's solid Republican rating from multiple forecasters and the absence of major late-breaking events that could narrow the gap.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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