A persistent upper-level ridge over south-central Texas, combined with southerly flow and limited cloud cover, supports surface temperatures climbing into the 100–101°F range for Austin on August 12, aligning with the market’s leading 55.5% implied probability. August climatology shows a long-term average daily high near 98°F, with peaks historically around 99°F, providing context for why traders assign secondary weight to 102–103°F outcomes while discounting extremes. Recent National Weather Service guidance and short-range model consensus indicate mostly sunny conditions with only isolated thunderstorm chances that could introduce modest boundary-layer cooling or mixing variations of 1–2°F. Forecast uncertainty remains low given stable model runs over the past 48 hours, though any overnight convective development before official observations from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport could shift the daily maximum.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Austin on August 12?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 12?
100-101°F 56%
102-103°F 23%
98-99°F 12%
104-105°F 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 12, 2026
91°F or below
<1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
3%
96-97°F
5%
98-99°F
12%
100-101°F
56%
102-103°F
23%
104-105°F
12%
106-107°F
10%
108-109°F
4%
110°F or higher
2%
100-101°F 56%
102-103°F 23%
98-99°F 12%
104-105°F 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 12, 2026
91°F or below
$12 Обс.
<1%
92-93°F
$12 Обс.
1%
94-95°F
$28 Обс.
3%
96-97°F
$0 Обс.
5%
98-99°F
$0 Обс.
12%
100-101°F
$57 Обс.
56%
102-103°F
$8 Обс.
23%
104-105°F
$0 Обс.
12%
106-107°F
$10 Обс.
10%
108-109°F
$27 Обс.
4%
110°F or higher
$22 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A persistent upper-level ridge over south-central Texas, combined with southerly flow and limited cloud cover, supports surface temperatures climbing into the 100–101°F range for Austin on August 12, aligning with the market’s leading 55.5% implied probability. August climatology shows a long-term average daily high near 98°F, with peaks historically around 99°F, providing context for why traders assign secondary weight to 102–103°F outcomes while discounting extremes. Recent National Weather Service guidance and short-range model consensus indicate mostly sunny conditions with only isolated thunderstorm chances that could introduce modest boundary-layer cooling or mixing variations of 1–2°F. Forecast uncertainty remains low given stable model runs over the past 48 hours, though any overnight convective development before official observations from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport could shift the daily maximum.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Обсяг
$175Дата завершення
Aug 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A persistent upper-level ridge over south-central Texas, combined with southerly flow and limited cloud cover, supports surface temperatures climbing into the 100–101°F range for Austin on August 12, aligning with the market’s leading 55.5% implied probability. August climatology shows a long-term average daily high near 98°F, with peaks historically around 99°F, providing context for why traders assign secondary weight to 102–103°F outcomes while discounting extremes. Recent National Weather Service guidance and short-range model consensus indicate mostly sunny conditions with only isolated thunderstorm chances that could introduce modest boundary-layer cooling or mixing variations of 1–2°F. Forecast uncertainty remains low given stable model runs over the past 48 hours, though any overnight convective development before official observations from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport could shift the daily maximum.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$175Дата завершення
Aug 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...A persistent upper-level ridge over south-central Texas, combined with southerly flow and limited cloud cover, supports surface temperatures climbing into the 100–101°F range for Austin on August 12, aligning with the market’s leading 55.5% implied probability. August climatology shows a long-term average daily high near 98°F, with peaks historically around 99°F, providing context for why traders assign secondary weight to 102–103°F outcomes while discounting extremes. Recent National Weather Service guidance and short-range model consensus indicate mostly sunny conditions with only isolated thunderstorm chances that could introduce modest boundary-layer cooling or mixing variations of 1–2°F. Forecast uncertainty remains low given stable model runs over the past 48 hours, though any overnight convective development before official observations from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport could shift the daily maximum.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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