Trader consensus clustering around 29–31°C for Hong Kong’s September 5 maximum reflects the latest numerical weather prediction consensus, including outputs aligned with Hong Kong Observatory guidance, showing highs near seasonal norms of 29°C amid lingering moisture and cloud cover from tropical cyclone Saudel. This system has introduced showers and northwesterly flow that limit daytime heating, while broader El Niño conditions support a normal-to-above-normal monthly temperature signal. Key uncertainties center on Saudel’s exact track and intensity, which could either enhance cooling via additional rain or allow clearer skies for higher readings. Updated HKO forecasts and ensemble model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 5?
31°C 36%
30°C 30%
29°C 26%
32°C 6%
24°C or below
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
2%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
26%
30°C
30%
31°C
36%
32°C
6%
33°C
3%
34°C or higher
<1%
31°C 36%
30°C 30%
29°C 26%
32°C 6%
24°C or below
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
2%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
26%
30°C
30%
31°C
36%
32°C
6%
33°C
3%
34°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Вирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Вирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clustering around 29–31°C for Hong Kong’s September 5 maximum reflects the latest numerical weather prediction consensus, including outputs aligned with Hong Kong Observatory guidance, showing highs near seasonal norms of 29°C amid lingering moisture and cloud cover from tropical cyclone Saudel. This system has introduced showers and northwesterly flow that limit daytime heating, while broader El Niño conditions support a normal-to-above-normal monthly temperature signal. Key uncertainties center on Saudel’s exact track and intensity, which could either enhance cooling via additional rain or allow clearer skies for higher readings. Updated HKO forecasts and ensemble model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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