**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and NOAA ensembles currently favor a daily high of 96-97°F in Houston on August 15, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 59% implied probability for that bin.** Typical mid-August conditions in the Houston area feature strong solar heating under a subtropical high-pressure regime, combined with high Gulf moisture that limits overnight cooling and supports daytime maxima in the mid-to-upper 90s. Recent forecasts show mostly sunny skies with only isolated afternoon shower chances, allowing temperatures to reach or slightly exceed the seasonal average high near 95°F. The 94-95°F bin at 27.5% reflects possible modest cooling from sea-breeze effects or thin cloud cover, while the 11% chance assigned to 98-99°F accounts for the small upside risk if heating strengthens under the ongoing heat dome. Historical August data indicate that 100°F+ readings remain uncommon without stronger subsidence or drier air, keeping those tail outcomes below 1%. Updated model runs through the morning will refine these probabilities ahead of peak heating.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Houston on August 15?
Highest temperature in Houston on August 15?
96-97°F 59%
94-95°F 27%
98-99°F 13%
92-93°F 3%
НОВЕ
$10,953 Обс.
НОВЕ
$10,953 Обс.
Aug 15, 2026
85°F or below
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
3%
94-95°F
27%
96-97°F
59%
98-99°F
13%
100-101°F
1%
102-103°F
<1%
104°F or higher
<1%
96-97°F 59%
94-95°F 27%
98-99°F 13%
92-93°F 3%
НОВЕ
$10,953 Обс.
НОВЕ
$10,953 Обс.
Aug 15, 2026
85°F or below
$170 Обс.
<1%
86-87°F
$308 Обс.
<1%
88-89°F
$476 Обс.
<1%
90-91°F
$497 Обс.
<1%
92-93°F
$878 Обс.
3%
94-95°F
$1,271 Обс.
27%
96-97°F
$3,927 Обс.
59%
98-99°F
$1,292 Обс.
13%
100-101°F
$875 Обс.
1%
102-103°F
$691 Обс.
<1%
104°F or higher
$568 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and NOAA ensembles currently favor a daily high of 96-97°F in Houston on August 15, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 59% implied probability for that bin.**
Typical mid-August conditions in the Houston area feature strong solar heating under a subtropical high-pressure regime, combined with high Gulf moisture that limits overnight cooling and supports daytime maxima in the mid-to-upper 90s. Recent forecasts show mostly sunny skies with only isolated afternoon shower chances, allowing temperatures to reach or slightly exceed the seasonal average high near 95°F.
The 94-95°F bin at 27.5% reflects possible modest cooling from sea-breeze effects or thin cloud cover, while the 11% chance assigned to 98-99°F accounts for the small upside risk if heating strengthens under the ongoing heat dome. Historical August data indicate that 100°F+ readings remain uncommon without stronger subsidence or drier air, keeping those tail outcomes below 1%. Updated model runs through the morning will refine these probabilities ahead of peak heating.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Обсяг
$10,953Дата завершення
Aug 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and NOAA ensembles currently favor a daily high of 96-97°F in Houston on August 15, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 59% implied probability for that bin.**
Typical mid-August conditions in the Houston area feature strong solar heating under a subtropical high-pressure regime, combined with high Gulf moisture that limits overnight cooling and supports daytime maxima in the mid-to-upper 90s. Recent forecasts show mostly sunny skies with only isolated afternoon shower chances, allowing temperatures to reach or slightly exceed the seasonal average high near 95°F.
The 94-95°F bin at 27.5% reflects possible modest cooling from sea-breeze effects or thin cloud cover, while the 11% chance assigned to 98-99°F accounts for the small upside risk if heating strengthens under the ongoing heat dome. Historical August data indicate that 100°F+ readings remain uncommon without stronger subsidence or drier air, keeping those tail outcomes below 1%. Updated model runs through the morning will refine these probabilities ahead of peak heating.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$10,953Дата завершення
Aug 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and NOAA ensembles currently favor a daily high of 96-97°F in Houston on August 15, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 59% implied probability for that bin.** Typical mid-August conditions in the Houston area feature strong solar heating under a subtropical high-pressure regime, combined with high Gulf moisture that limits overnight cooling and supports daytime maxima in the mid-to-upper 90s. Recent forecasts show mostly sunny skies with only isolated afternoon shower chances, allowing temperatures to reach or slightly exceed the seasonal average high near 95°F. The 94-95°F bin at 27.5% reflects possible modest cooling from sea-breeze effects or thin cloud cover, while the 11% chance assigned to 98-99°F accounts for the small upside risk if heating strengthens under the ongoing heat dome. Historical August data indicate that 100°F+ readings remain uncommon without stronger subsidence or drier air, keeping those tail outcomes below 1%. Updated model runs through the morning will refine these probabilities ahead of peak heating.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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