Trader consensus clusters tightly around 26°C (35.5% implied probability) and 27°C (29%) for London's August 15 maximum, driven by ensemble forecast spreads from the Met Office and ECMWF models two days ahead. Subtle variations in ridge positioning, boundary-layer moisture, and daytime cloud cover differentiate these bins, while a modest southerly flow anomaly supports readings above the mid-August climatological mean of 22–24°C. Model agreement remains strong on the absence of significant frontal systems, yet small shifts in wind direction or insolation could tip the outcome between the leading categories. Fresh observational data and updated runs will narrow remaining uncertainty before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in London on August 15?
Highest temperature in London on August 15?
26°C 36%
27°C 29%
25°C 15%
28°C 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
6%
25°C
15%
26°C
36%
27°C
29%
28°C
11%
29°C
4%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 36%
27°C 29%
25°C 15%
28°C 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
$710 Обс.
<1%
21°C
$489 Обс.
<1%
22°C
$258 Обс.
<1%
23°C
$90 Обс.
1%
24°C
$534 Обс.
6%
25°C
$861 Обс.
15%
26°C
$535 Обс.
36%
27°C
$1,006 Обс.
29%
28°C
$281 Обс.
11%
29°C
$576 Обс.
4%
30°C or higher
$353 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus clusters tightly around 26°C (35.5% implied probability) and 27°C (29%) for London's August 15 maximum, driven by ensemble forecast spreads from the Met Office and ECMWF models two days ahead. Subtle variations in ridge positioning, boundary-layer moisture, and daytime cloud cover differentiate these bins, while a modest southerly flow anomaly supports readings above the mid-August climatological mean of 22–24°C. Model agreement remains strong on the absence of significant frontal systems, yet small shifts in wind direction or insolation could tip the outcome between the leading categories. Fresh observational data and updated runs will narrow remaining uncertainty before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Обсяг
$5,692Дата завершення
Aug 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus clusters tightly around 26°C (35.5% implied probability) and 27°C (29%) for London's August 15 maximum, driven by ensemble forecast spreads from the Met Office and ECMWF models two days ahead. Subtle variations in ridge positioning, boundary-layer moisture, and daytime cloud cover differentiate these bins, while a modest southerly flow anomaly supports readings above the mid-August climatological mean of 22–24°C. Model agreement remains strong on the absence of significant frontal systems, yet small shifts in wind direction or insolation could tip the outcome between the leading categories. Fresh observational data and updated runs will narrow remaining uncertainty before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$5,692Дата завершення
Aug 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters tightly around 26°C (35.5% implied probability) and 27°C (29%) for London's August 15 maximum, driven by ensemble forecast spreads from the Met Office and ECMWF models two days ahead. Subtle variations in ridge positioning, boundary-layer moisture, and daytime cloud cover differentiate these bins, while a modest southerly flow anomaly supports readings above the mid-August climatological mean of 22–24°C. Model agreement remains strong on the absence of significant frontal systems, yet small shifts in wind direction or insolation could tip the outcome between the leading categories. Fresh observational data and updated runs will narrow remaining uncertainty before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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