Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 14°C in Moscow on May 12, backed by official observational data from Roshydromet stations like VDNKh and Balchug, which recorded a daytime peak of 14°C amid extensive cloud cover and patchy rain. This cool anomaly—well below the mid-May climatological average high of 18–19°C—stems from a lingering low-pressure system delivering record-breaking overnight snowfall of around 12 cm, the heaviest for this date, which chilled surface temperatures and limited solar insolation. Evening readings near 12°C under overcast skies further solidify the outcome as the daily maximum window closes, with no model consensus from ECMWF or GFS ensembles suggesting late warming. Realistic challenges would require a rare official data revision from primary stations, though such adjustments are infrequent post-verification.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Moscow on May 12?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 12?
14°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
15°C <1%
$71,534 Обс.
$71,534 Обс.
May 12, 2026
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
15°C <1%
$71,534 Обс.
$71,534 Обс.
May 12, 2026
12°C or below
$8,525 Обс.
No
13°C
$5,768 Обс.
No
14°C
$10,201 Обс.
Yes
15°C
$4,183 Обс.
No
16°C
$5,882 Обс.
No
17°C
$5,244 Обс.
No
18°C
$3,746 Обс.
No
19°C
$5,989 Обс.
No
20°C
$7,158 Обс.
No
21°C
$7,042 Обс.
No
22°C or higher
$7,796 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 14°C in Moscow on May 12, backed by official observational data from Roshydromet stations like VDNKh and Balchug, which recorded a daytime peak of 14°C amid extensive cloud cover and patchy rain. This cool anomaly—well below the mid-May climatological average high of 18–19°C—stems from a lingering low-pressure system delivering record-breaking overnight snowfall of around 12 cm, the heaviest for this date, which chilled surface temperatures and limited solar insolation. Evening readings near 12°C under overcast skies further solidify the outcome as the daily maximum window closes, with no model consensus from ECMWF or GFS ensembles suggesting late warming. Realistic challenges would require a rare official data revision from primary stations, though such adjustments are infrequent post-verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 10, 2026, 12:36 AM ET
Обсяг
$71,534Дата завершення
May 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 10, 2026, 12:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 14°C in Moscow on May 12, backed by official observational data from Roshydromet stations like VDNKh and Balchug, which recorded a daytime peak of 14°C amid extensive cloud cover and patchy rain. This cool anomaly—well below the mid-May climatological average high of 18–19°C—stems from a lingering low-pressure system delivering record-breaking overnight snowfall of around 12 cm, the heaviest for this date, which chilled surface temperatures and limited solar insolation. Evening readings near 12°C under overcast skies further solidify the outcome as the daily maximum window closes, with no model consensus from ECMWF or GFS ensembles suggesting late warming. Realistic challenges would require a rare official data revision from primary stations, though such adjustments are infrequent post-verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$71,534Дата завершення
May 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 10, 2026, 12:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 14°C in Moscow on May 12, backed by official observational data from Roshydromet stations like VDNKh and Balchug, which recorded a daytime peak of 14°C amid extensive cloud cover and patchy rain. This cool anomaly—well below the mid-May climatological average high of 18–19°C—stems from a lingering low-pressure system delivering record-breaking overnight snowfall of around 12 cm, the heaviest for this date, which chilled surface temperatures and limited solar insolation. Evening readings near 12°C under overcast skies further solidify the outcome as the daily maximum window closes, with no model consensus from ECMWF or GFS ensembles suggesting late warming. Realistic challenges would require a rare official data revision from primary stations, though such adjustments are infrequent post-verification.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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