The tightly clustered market-implied odds across 15–22°C for Moscow’s September 21 high temperature signal notable short-range forecast uncertainty just two days out. Ensemble spreads in global models such as ECMWF and GFS show modest variability driven by evolving high-pressure ridging and possible weak frontal passages over European Russia, with current surface observations indicating near-normal late-September conditions. Historical climatology places typical daily maxima around 15–18°C, yet small shifts in 500 hPa heights or cloud cover can swing outcomes by several degrees. Traders will watch the next model runs and Roshydromet updates for clearer signals on whether warmer advection or cooler northerly flow dominates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Moscow on September 21?
Highest temperature in Moscow on September 21?
20°C 39%
15°C 34%
17°C 24%
19°C 23%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 21, 2026
13°C or below
3%
14°C
4%
15°C
34%
16°C
22%
17°C
24%
18°C
21%
19°C
22%
20°C
39%
21°C
19%
22°C
12%
23°C or higher
4%
20°C 39%
15°C 34%
17°C 24%
19°C 23%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 21, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Обс.
3%
14°C
$0 Обс.
4%
15°C
$8 Обс.
34%
16°C
$0 Обс.
22%
17°C
$0 Обс.
24%
18°C
$0 Обс.
21%
19°C
$4 Обс.
22%
20°C
$0 Обс.
39%
21°C
$0 Обс.
19%
22°C
$0 Обс.
12%
23°C or higher
$0 Обс.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The tightly clustered market-implied odds across 15–22°C for Moscow’s September 21 high temperature signal notable short-range forecast uncertainty just two days out. Ensemble spreads in global models such as ECMWF and GFS show modest variability driven by evolving high-pressure ridging and possible weak frontal passages over European Russia, with current surface observations indicating near-normal late-September conditions. Historical climatology places typical daily maxima around 15–18°C, yet small shifts in 500 hPa heights or cloud cover can swing outcomes by several degrees. Traders will watch the next model runs and Roshydromet updates for clearer signals on whether warmer advection or cooler northerly flow dominates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Обсяг
$12Дата завершення
Sep 21, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The tightly clustered market-implied odds across 15–22°C for Moscow’s September 21 high temperature signal notable short-range forecast uncertainty just two days out. Ensemble spreads in global models such as ECMWF and GFS show modest variability driven by evolving high-pressure ridging and possible weak frontal passages over European Russia, with current surface observations indicating near-normal late-September conditions. Historical climatology places typical daily maxima around 15–18°C, yet small shifts in 500 hPa heights or cloud cover can swing outcomes by several degrees. Traders will watch the next model runs and Roshydromet updates for clearer signals on whether warmer advection or cooler northerly flow dominates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$12Дата завершення
Sep 21, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The tightly clustered market-implied odds across 15–22°C for Moscow’s September 21 high temperature signal notable short-range forecast uncertainty just two days out. Ensemble spreads in global models such as ECMWF and GFS show modest variability driven by evolving high-pressure ridging and possible weak frontal passages over European Russia, with current surface observations indicating near-normal late-September conditions. Historical climatology places typical daily maxima around 15–18°C, yet small shifts in 500 hPa heights or cloud cover can swing outcomes by several degrees. Traders will watch the next model runs and Roshydromet updates for clearer signals on whether warmer advection or cooler northerly flow dominates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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