**Forecast models from MetService and international sources currently project a daytime maximum near 12°C for Wellington on August 7, 2026, amid a transition from a recent southerly polar outbreak.** A transient ridge of high pressure is expected to moderate the cold air mass, allowing highs to reach the low teens rather than remaining suppressed in the single digits seen on August 4–6. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 12–13°C outcomes (combined ~82%), which reflect the consensus range after accounting for model spread and typical winter variability. Seasonal context reinforces these probabilities: NIWA outlooks indicate near-average or slightly below-average temperatures for the Wellington region during June–August 2026 under developing El Niño conditions, which favor west-southwest winds that can limit daytime warming. Historical August averages hover around 12°C, and the current setup—post-cold front clearing with light winds—positions 13°C as the slight favorite while keeping 11°C or below a realistic downside risk if stronger onshore flow persists. No major data releases or model runs are imminent before resolution, so trader sentiment will likely track any late adjustments in official guidance.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on August 7?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 7?
13°C 56%
12°C 27%
14°C 12%
15°C 3%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 7, 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
3%
12°C
27%
13°C
56%
14°C
12%
15°C
3%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
13°C 56%
12°C 27%
14°C 12%
15°C 3%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 7, 2026
7°C or below
$407 Обс.
<1%
8°C
$150 Обс.
<1%
9°C
$106 Обс.
<1%
10°C
$103 Обс.
<1%
11°C
$178 Обс.
3%
12°C
$225 Обс.
27%
13°C
$607 Обс.
56%
14°C
$378 Обс.
12%
15°C
$246 Обс.
3%
16°C
$10 Обс.
<1%
17°C or higher
$100 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from MetService and international sources currently project a daytime maximum near 12°C for Wellington on August 7, 2026, amid a transition from a recent southerly polar outbreak.** A transient ridge of high pressure is expected to moderate the cold air mass, allowing highs to reach the low teens rather than remaining suppressed in the single digits seen on August 4–6. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 12–13°C outcomes (combined ~82%), which reflect the consensus range after accounting for model spread and typical winter variability.
Seasonal context reinforces these probabilities: NIWA outlooks indicate near-average or slightly below-average temperatures for the Wellington region during June–August 2026 under developing El Niño conditions, which favor west-southwest winds that can limit daytime warming. Historical August averages hover around 12°C, and the current setup—post-cold front clearing with light winds—positions 13°C as the slight favorite while keeping 11°C or below a realistic downside risk if stronger onshore flow persists. No major data releases or model runs are imminent before resolution, so trader sentiment will likely track any late adjustments in official guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Обсяг
$2,512Дата завершення
Aug 7, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from MetService and international sources currently project a daytime maximum near 12°C for Wellington on August 7, 2026, amid a transition from a recent southerly polar outbreak.** A transient ridge of high pressure is expected to moderate the cold air mass, allowing highs to reach the low teens rather than remaining suppressed in the single digits seen on August 4–6. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 12–13°C outcomes (combined ~82%), which reflect the consensus range after accounting for model spread and typical winter variability.
Seasonal context reinforces these probabilities: NIWA outlooks indicate near-average or slightly below-average temperatures for the Wellington region during June–August 2026 under developing El Niño conditions, which favor west-southwest winds that can limit daytime warming. Historical August averages hover around 12°C, and the current setup—post-cold front clearing with light winds—positions 13°C as the slight favorite while keeping 11°C or below a realistic downside risk if stronger onshore flow persists. No major data releases or model runs are imminent before resolution, so trader sentiment will likely track any late adjustments in official guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$2,512Дата завершення
Aug 7, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from MetService and international sources currently project a daytime maximum near 12°C for Wellington on August 7, 2026, amid a transition from a recent southerly polar outbreak.** A transient ridge of high pressure is expected to moderate the cold air mass, allowing highs to reach the low teens rather than remaining suppressed in the single digits seen on August 4–6. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 12–13°C outcomes (combined ~82%), which reflect the consensus range after accounting for model spread and typical winter variability. Seasonal context reinforces these probabilities: NIWA outlooks indicate near-average or slightly below-average temperatures for the Wellington region during June–August 2026 under developing El Niño conditions, which favor west-southwest winds that can limit daytime warming. Historical August averages hover around 12°C, and the current setup—post-cold front clearing with light winds—positions 13°C as the slight favorite while keeping 11°C or below a realistic downside risk if stronger onshore flow persists. No major data releases or model runs are imminent before resolution, so trader sentiment will likely track any late adjustments in official guidance.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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