Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models show Warsaw under a ridge of high pressure with light winds and mostly clear skies on August 5, favoring strong daytime heating and peak temperatures centered in the mid-30s °C. Model spread arises mainly from small differences in boundary-layer moisture, exact timing of any weak frontal passage, and local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2 °C. Historical climatology places normal early-August maxima near 24–26 °C, so current conditions represent a significant positive anomaly. With leading market probabilities clustered tightly between 36 °C and 38 °C, traders appear to be weighting the consensus of the latest high-resolution runs while discounting lower-probability scenarios of greater cloud cover or earlier cooling. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24 hours will likely tighten or shift these odds.