Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a strong position in the 2026 Kansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican voting patterns, including Donald Trump's 2024 margin of over 16 points, and his own primary victory with nearly 80 percent support. Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton, a prominent Leawood pastor who won his August primary in a crowded field, has raised substantial funds and narrowed some polls to single digits, yet faces structural barriers in a state without a Democratic senator since the 1930s. A September 13 debate at the Kansas State Fair drew a vocal crowd that interrupted Marshall repeatedly over agriculture, tariffs, immigration, and Trump ties, but prediction markets continue to reflect trader consensus around an 80 percent implied probability for the incumbent based on historical base rates and fundamentals rather than recent polling volatility.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоKansas Senate Election Winner
Kansas Senate Election Winner
$50,729 Обс.
$50,729 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Roger Marshall (R)
80%
Adam Hamilton (D)
22%
$50,729 Обс.
$50,729 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Roger Marshall (R)
$32,737 Обс.
80%
Adam Hamilton (D)
$17,992 Обс.
22%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a strong position in the 2026 Kansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican voting patterns, including Donald Trump's 2024 margin of over 16 points, and his own primary victory with nearly 80 percent support. Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton, a prominent Leawood pastor who won his August primary in a crowded field, has raised substantial funds and narrowed some polls to single digits, yet faces structural barriers in a state without a Democratic senator since the 1930s. A September 13 debate at the Kansas State Fair drew a vocal crowd that interrupted Marshall repeatedly over agriculture, tariffs, immigration, and Trump ties, but prediction markets continue to reflect trader consensus around an 80 percent implied probability for the incumbent based on historical base rates and fundamentals rather than recent polling volatility.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Ринок відкрито: Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Обсяг
$50,729Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a strong position in the 2026 Kansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican voting patterns, including Donald Trump's 2024 margin of over 16 points, and his own primary victory with nearly 80 percent support. Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton, a prominent Leawood pastor who won his August primary in a crowded field, has raised substantial funds and narrowed some polls to single digits, yet faces structural barriers in a state without a Democratic senator since the 1930s. A September 13 debate at the Kansas State Fair drew a vocal crowd that interrupted Marshall repeatedly over agriculture, tariffs, immigration, and Trump ties, but prediction markets continue to reflect trader consensus around an 80 percent implied probability for the incumbent based on historical base rates and fundamentals rather than recent polling volatility.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Обсяг
$50,729Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a strong position in the 2026 Kansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican voting patterns, including Donald Trump's 2024 margin of over 16 points, and his own primary victory with nearly 80 percent support. Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton, a prominent Leawood pastor who won his August primary in a crowded field, has raised substantial funds and narrowed some polls to single digits, yet faces structural barriers in a state without a Democratic senator since the 1930s. A September 13 debate at the Kansas State Fair drew a vocal crowd that interrupted Marshall repeatedly over agriculture, tariffs, immigration, and Trump ties, but prediction markets continue to reflect trader consensus around an 80 percent implied probability for the incumbent based on historical base rates and fundamentals rather than recent polling volatility.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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