Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international ensembles points to clearing skies and moderating northerly flow over Istanbul, supporting overnight lows near 15–18°C on September 25. This aligns with the market-implied 49% probability for a minimum of 16°C or higher, as the current warming trend after mid-week rains reduces the chance of colder boundary-layer air pooling. Historical September climatology shows average nighttime minima around 16–17°C, with rare excursions below 12°C this early in the season. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic runs showing no significant cold advection or radiative cooling under partly cloudy conditions. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24 hours could refine the exact minimum if wind speeds or cloud cover shift.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 25?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 25?
16°C or higher 98%
6°C or below 50%
7°C 40%
8°C 40%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 25, 2026
6°C or below
50%
7°C
40%
8°C
40%
9°C
40%
10°C
40%
11°C
40%
12°C
40%
13°C
40%
14°C
40%
15°C
40%
16°C or higher
98%
16°C or higher 98%
6°C or below 50%
7°C 40%
8°C 40%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 25, 2026
6°C or below
$0 Обс.
50%
7°C
$0 Обс.
40%
8°C
$0 Обс.
40%
9°C
$0 Обс.
40%
10°C
$0 Обс.
40%
11°C
$0 Обс.
40%
12°C
$0 Обс.
40%
13°C
$0 Обс.
40%
14°C
$0 Обс.
40%
15°C
$0 Обс.
40%
16°C or higher
$0 Обс.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international ensembles points to clearing skies and moderating northerly flow over Istanbul, supporting overnight lows near 15–18°C on September 25. This aligns with the market-implied 49% probability for a minimum of 16°C or higher, as the current warming trend after mid-week rains reduces the chance of colder boundary-layer air pooling. Historical September climatology shows average nighttime minima around 16–17°C, with rare excursions below 12°C this early in the season. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic runs showing no significant cold advection or radiative cooling under partly cloudy conditions. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24 hours could refine the exact minimum if wind speeds or cloud cover shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 25, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international ensembles points to clearing skies and moderating northerly flow over Istanbul, supporting overnight lows near 15–18°C on September 25. This aligns with the market-implied 49% probability for a minimum of 16°C or higher, as the current warming trend after mid-week rains reduces the chance of colder boundary-layer air pooling. Historical September climatology shows average nighttime minima around 16–17°C, with rare excursions below 12°C this early in the season. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic runs showing no significant cold advection or radiative cooling under partly cloudy conditions. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24 hours could refine the exact minimum if wind speeds or cloud cover shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 25, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international ensembles points to clearing skies and moderating northerly flow over Istanbul, supporting overnight lows near 15–18°C on September 25. This aligns with the market-implied 49% probability for a minimum of 16°C or higher, as the current warming trend after mid-week rains reduces the chance of colder boundary-layer air pooling. Historical September climatology shows average nighttime minima around 16–17°C, with rare excursions below 12°C this early in the season. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic runs showing no significant cold advection or radiative cooling under partly cloudy conditions. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24 hours could refine the exact minimum if wind speeds or cloud cover shift.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання