Forecast consensus from regional models places Jinan’s minimum temperature for September 15 near 19–21 °C under clear to partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow, consistent with late-summer climatology. Trader sentiment remains closely split because small differences in boundary-layer mixing, overnight radiative cooling rates, or localized urban heat-island effects could shift the observed low across the 18–22 °C range that dominates the order book. With resolution occurring within hours, the market reflects uncertainty over the precise timing of the daily minimum and any microscale deviations from gridded guidance rather than broad synoptic changes.