Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble model runs indicate overnight lows near 13–14°C for London on 23 August, reflecting the dominant market probabilities clustered around those values. A ridge of high pressure is expected to promote clear skies and light winds, enhancing radiational cooling after daytime maxima near 23°C, consistent with late-August climatology where average minima reach about 14°C. Minor spread in outcomes arises from small uncertainties in cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture that could alter the overnight minimum by 1–2°C. Updated short-range forecasts and local observations over the next 48 hours remain the key variables traders will monitor ahead of resolution.