Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 9°C in London on May 9, driven by verified Met Office observations from Heathrow Airport—the authoritative reference station—which recorded a screen minimum of 9°C around 04:00 amid light winds and partial cloud cover that limited radiative cooling. This aligns precisely with pre-event UKV and GFS model runs forecasting minima in the 8–10°C range under a stable high-pressure ridge, consistent with early May climatology where London overnight lows typically cluster between 7–12°C. Realistic challenges are minimal post-quality control, though a rare data audit revealing a lower reading at St James's Park or another official site could prompt revision; final resolution awaits Met Office daily summary confirmation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in London on May 9?
Lowest temperature in London on May 9?
9°C 100.0%
4°C or below <1%
5°C <1%
6°C <1%
$55,056 Обс.
$55,056 Обс.
May 9, 2026
4°C or below
No
5°C
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
Yes
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C or higher
No
9°C 100.0%
4°C or below <1%
5°C <1%
6°C <1%
$55,056 Обс.
$55,056 Обс.
May 9, 2026
4°C or below
$9,880 Обс.
No
5°C
$5,016 Обс.
No
6°C
$1,991 Обс.
No
7°C
$1,442 Обс.
No
8°C
$2,854 Обс.
No
9°C
$19,756 Обс.
Yes
10°C
$6,125 Обс.
No
11°C
$2,980 Обс.
No
12°C
$1,216 Обс.
No
13°C
$1,859 Обс.
No
14°C or higher
$1,936 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 9°C in London on May 9, driven by verified Met Office observations from Heathrow Airport—the authoritative reference station—which recorded a screen minimum of 9°C around 04:00 amid light winds and partial cloud cover that limited radiative cooling. This aligns precisely with pre-event UKV and GFS model runs forecasting minima in the 8–10°C range under a stable high-pressure ridge, consistent with early May climatology where London overnight lows typically cluster between 7–12°C. Realistic challenges are minimal post-quality control, though a rare data audit revealing a lower reading at St James's Park or another official site could prompt revision; final resolution awaits Met Office daily summary confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 7, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Обсяг
$55,056Дата завершення
May 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 7, 2026, 12:01 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 9°C in London on May 9, driven by verified Met Office observations from Heathrow Airport—the authoritative reference station—which recorded a screen minimum of 9°C around 04:00 amid light winds and partial cloud cover that limited radiative cooling. This aligns precisely with pre-event UKV and GFS model runs forecasting minima in the 8–10°C range under a stable high-pressure ridge, consistent with early May climatology where London overnight lows typically cluster between 7–12°C. Realistic challenges are minimal post-quality control, though a rare data audit revealing a lower reading at St James's Park or another official site could prompt revision; final resolution awaits Met Office daily summary confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$55,056Дата завершення
May 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 7, 2026, 12:01 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 9°C in London on May 9, driven by verified Met Office observations from Heathrow Airport—the authoritative reference station—which recorded a screen minimum of 9°C around 04:00 amid light winds and partial cloud cover that limited radiative cooling. This aligns precisely with pre-event UKV and GFS model runs forecasting minima in the 8–10°C range under a stable high-pressure ridge, consistent with early May climatology where London overnight lows typically cluster between 7–12°C. Realistic challenges are minimal post-quality control, though a rare data audit revealing a lower reading at St James's Park or another official site could prompt revision; final resolution awaits Met Office daily summary confirmation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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